Parliament ended its winter/spring sitting yesterday on June 18 and MPs and Senators are off for the summer. MPs will return to Ottawa on September 21, and Senators will sit again on September 28.
The government agenda
Overall, the largest challenge facing Mark Carney’s government is aligning his long-term economic strategies with the need to respond to short-term affordability pressures – all while managing the volatile trade relationship with the United States.
In the summer of 2026, the government is well underway in engineering a fundamental economic transition in Canada. Its objectives are a stronger, more resilient and more diversified economy, to reduce dependence on the United States and lower the risks resulting from global volatility. A recurring theme of this approach is the fusing of domestic economic policy with geopolitical strategy, requiring Canada to build new trade, security and defence partnerships with other middle power countries.
These new policy directions move the economy away from the traditional market-driven model and towards more state-guided investment and industrial policies aimed at nation-building through major projects, infrastructure and energy development, increased defence spending and more effective defence procurement and artificial intelligence. The Carney government is supporting these changes through a labour force skills development push to train 80,000-100,000 skilled trades workers over the next four years. To implement these directional shifts, the government is also pursuing reforms within the federal system through new structures to speed major project approvals.
While pursuing this reform agenda, the Carney government has been forced to manage two related ongoing national economic challenges: the sectoral fallout from the Trump tariffs and the affordability crisis afflicting millions of Canadians. Finally, after signing the Memorandum of Understanding with Alberta last fall, the two governments have been working through its many provisions to chart a new course for oil and gas development, transportation and export.
New federal initiatives
The Carney government released several major federal initiatives during the winter/spring sitting. These include the Defence Industrial Strategy (February 17); A Force of Nature: Canada’s Strategy to Protect Nature (March 31); the Canada Strong Fund, (sovereign wealth fund) (April 29); the Team Canada Strong skilled trades initiative (April 29); the National Electricity Strategy (May 14); AI for All (June 4); and the National Food Security Strategy (June 11).
Several important pieces of legislation were introduced in recent weeks as the sitting drew to a close, including Bill C‑34, the Safe Social Media Act (June 10, 2025); Bill C-35, prohibiting the importation of goods produced by forced labour (June 12); Bill C-36, on privacy (June 15); and Bill C-37, the First Nations Safe Clean Water Act June 16).
In addition, the 17-member joint House of Commons and Senate committee studying medical assistance in dying (MAID) issued its report recommending against expanding MAID access to include patients whose only condition is mental illness.
Help for tariff victims
To assist tariff-hit sectors, the government on May 4 announced a new $1 billion Business Development Bank of Canada program and $500 million in additional funding for the Regional Tariff Response Initiative, to be delivered by the regional development agencies. The Business Development Bank loans will be available to the steel, aluminum and copper sectors, while the regional development support will be available to help SMEs diversify in the face of tariffs.
Affordability
On affordability, the federal government announced in January that the expanded and improved Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit (CGEB) will replace the GST/HST credit at the end of June. Under its new name, the eligibility, payment calculation, and structure will be the same as the GST/HST credit. Earlier in the sitting, the government waived the full federal excise tax on gasoline and diesel from spring through September 7, 2026, lowering costs at the pump. Also, in March, the government provided a one-time payment of $1,200 to low-income individuals and families, middle-income households facing financial pressure and seniors receiving pensions such as CPP or OAS.
Reactions to the economic reform initiatives
For the most part, the Liberals’ economic policy reforms have landed positively with the Canadian public and stakeholders, but there have been some exceptions. The Canada Strong Fund, which the government has billed as “Canada’s first sovereign wealth fund”, has attracted the criticism that even though it is be managed “at arms length”, project selection may become political. Critics also question how the Fund differs meaningfully from the Canada Infrastructure Bank, the Strategic Innovation Fund, and EDC and BDC financing. The comprehensiveness of the government’s AI for All initiative has been generally praised by observers, but many critics have suggested that it falls short on protections for privacy, security and personal safety.
More generally speaking, some observers have asked why the government favours subsidies over regulatory reform, questioning whether Canada’s growing protected economy limits the appetite for market-oriented solutions to economic stagnation. In particular, they fault the government’s approach to speeding up the federal approvals process for major national projects, suggesting that instead of dealing directly with the real causes of delay, it has opted for the creation of administrative “work arounds”. The government passed the Building Canada Act and created the Major Projects Office last year, but a new Intelligence Memo from the CD Howe Institute concludes that, “Rather than creating a clearer and more predictable approvals framework, these changes expand federal discretion and further politicize the regulatory process.”
The legislative agenda
List of legislation passed this session (government bills):
- C-4, Making Life More Affordable for Canadians Act
- C-8, Critical Cyber Systems Protection Act
- C-9, Combatting Hate Act
- C-11, Military Justice System Modernization Act
- C-12, Strengthening Canada’s Immigration System and Borders Act
- C-13, An Act to implement the Protocol on the Accession of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership
- C-14, Bail and Sentencing Reform Act
- C-15, Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 1
- C-16, Protecting Victims Act
- C-18, Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement Implementation Act
- C-19, Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit Act
- C-20, Build Canada Homes Act
- C-25, Strong and Free Elections Act
- C-26, An Act to authorize certain payments to be made out of the Consolidated Revenue Fund for the purpose of improving housing supply
- C-30, Spring Economic Update 2026 Implementation Act
List of legislation introduced and carried over to next session (government bills):
- C-2, Strong Borders Act – Second Reading
- C-10, Commissioner for Modern Treaty Implementation Act – Third Reading
- C-21, Red River Métis Self-Government Recognition and Implementation Treaty Act – Second Reading
- C-22, Lawful Access Act, 2026 – Second Reading (Senate)
- C-27, Final Self-Government Agreement for the Tlegohli Got’ine Act –
- Second Reading (Senate)
- C-28, Canadian Space Launch Act – Second Reading
- C-29, Financial Crimes Agency Act – Consideration in Committee (JUST)
- C-31, Budget 2025 Implementation Act, No. 2 – Consideration in committee (FINA), Senate pre-study (NFFN)
- C-34, Safe Social Media Act – Second Reading
- C-35, Ban on Importing Goods Made with Forced Labour Act – Second Reading
- C-36, Protecting Privacy and Consumer Data Act – Second Reading
- C-37, First Nations Clean Water Act – Second Reading
Issues to watch over the summer
CUSMA
The mandatory review of the Canada–U.S.–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) is a central pressure point this year. The July 1 deadline is fast approaching, and while the U.S. is holding formal talks with Mexico, U.S. contacts with Canada remain informal and unstructured.
Pipeline plans
July 1 is also the deadline for Alberta to unveil its long-awaited plans for the pipeline to the Pacific coast. Under the May 2026 federal-Alberta Implementation Agreement, the formal proposal must be submitted to Ottawa’s Major Projects Office by that date. This submission is the critical step that will allow the federal government to assess the project and consider designating it a “national interest project” by October 1, 2026.
Alberta referendum campaign
With the Alberta referendum set for October 19, watch for the Calgary Stampede to be the unofficial kick-off for campaigning on the referendum question:
“Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
With the Stampede starting July 3, immediately after the pipeline deadline, the Prime Minister’s reaction to that proposal will be closely watched by Albertans and his appearance at the Stampede will be high stakes.
Pierre Poilievre has already entered the referendum debate and can be expected to be speaking on the “remain” side throughout the summer. Given his hard opposition to further development of fossil fuels, and his singling out by Premier Smith, the direct participation of NDP leader Avi Lewis in the referendum is unlikely since it would be harmful to provincial NDP leader Naheed Nenshi.
Byelections necessary or on the horizon
Several byelections are in the offing over the summer.
- Alexandre Boulerice of the NDP has already resigned to run with Québec solidaire in this fall’s Quebec provincial election.
- Former Liberal minister Jonathan Wilkinson will resign over the summer to take up an ambassadorial appointment.
- Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith has said he will resign during the summer.
- Saskatchewan Conservative MP Cathay Wagantall recently announced she will step down on August 31.
- Quebec Bloc MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay will be resigning his seat to run provincially for the Parti Québécois.
- Former Liberal cabinet minister Stephen Guilbeault will step down sometime this summer.
Public opinion is holding in Carney’s favour, for now
Amidst the domestic and international challenges highlighted above, the outlook for the nation leans somewhat more positive than negative. According to a recent survey conducted by Earnscliffe’s opinion research team, more Canadians agree Canada is on the right track (40%, 5 to 7 on a 7-point scale), than believe that the country is on the wrong track (33%, 1 to 3 on a 7-point scale). Another 20% offer a neutral rating (4). It is worth noting that this view is not universally shared across generations: middle-aged Canadians lean more negative than positive on this question (32% right track, 40% wrong track). The younger age cohort (18-34) skew slightly positive (38% right track, 30% wrong track). Older Canadians 55+ are the most optimistic, with almost half (48%) saying the country is on the right track.
The moderately positive mood of the country, coupled with strong approval ratings, leave the Prime Minister in a favourable position for now. Carney heads into the summer with 52% approving of his performance as Prime Minister, while 34% disapprove, putting him in positive territory and granting him some leeway as the government deals with a more drawn-out and an unpredictable CUSMA renegotiation. However, while approval holds for now, the government must be mindful of the less optimistic outlook among some Canadians, including the middle-aged voters noted above, – will their concern about the future begin to colour how they feel about the Prime Minister’s performance?
Another factor strengthening Carney’s hand is that he holds an advantage over both Pierre Poilievre and Avi Lewis. Asked whether they hold a positive or negative impression of each federal leader, Canadians’ net approval ratings (positive – negative) for Carney are +20, -18 for Poilievre, and -9 for Lewis. While Mr. Poilievre remains popular within his own party, these results lend voice to concerns around Mr. Poilievre’s appeal to the broader electorate.
While Canadians have largely made up their minds about Pierre Poilievre, Avi Lewis remains relatively unknown: 61% of Canadians do not offer an opinion of him when asked, either answering that they are unsure (26%), do not know this person (32%) or prefer not to answer (3%). While Liberal and Conservative focus is elsewhere, the NDP should take the summer months to test and establish his brand.
About the survey:
The online survey, conducted by Earnscliffe’s opinion research team, was in field from May 27-29, 2026, and engaged a representative stratified sample of 1,657 respondents living in Canada 18 years or older who are members of Leger’s LEO panel (with an effective sample size of 1,175). Respondents had the option of completing the survey in French or English. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 2.41 at a confidence level of 95%. The data was weighted by age, gender and region based on Census 2021 data and self-reported past vote based on 2025 federal election results and turnout.
The research was conducted on Earnscliffe’s omnibus survey.
Earnscliffe is a member of CRIC and abides by the ESOMAR code of Market, Opinion, and Social Research and Data Analytics and CRIC standards, including the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.
For further information, please contact Hilary Martin (hmartin@earnscliffe.ca).
For question wording and data tables, please click here.
The Conservatives over the summer
By Liam O’Brien
As the House rises, we can expect a busy summer for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Poilievre’s summer is likely to be as much about renewal and repair of his own party as it is about opposition politics. It’s an opportunity to hit the barbecue circuit and regroup after a winter and spring focused on adjusting to the Carney government’s new majority status. While those efforts don’t pause, there’s significant room for rebuilding with provincial conservative networks, crafting a less abrasive tone on the economic message, and continuing to frame Conservatives as the credible alternative to the Carney Liberals.
The threat of a leadership revolt is not imminent, but also not entirely extinguished. Either way, the threat is not a formal membership challenge. Poilievre won 87.4% of delegates in January’s mandatory review. The more believable medium-term risk is a caucus confidence spiral if polling remains as it has been all spring with the Liberals enjoying a double-digit lead, and the leader’s broader public appeal remains stagnant.
Even among Poilievre’s critics, most don’t see a replacement ready to win both the party and the country. That said, the parliamentary caucus has a deep bench. Important figures include Melissa Lantsman, Michael Barrett, Ellis Ross, Sandra Cobena, Michelle Ferreri and Scott Aitchison. Expect the summer policy focus to continue to hammer the government on economic management and the recession. Depending on how the economy performs and CUSMA talks shake out, there may be additional opportunities for criticism and pressure from the Conservatives.
Tone is the central strategic issue. Poilievre has softened somewhat, though he also faced criticism for his problematic tone in the discussion of recession conditions. Empathy and compassion are important notes for successful Conservatives to hit. There are summer openings for Conservatives: economic anxiety, housing stress, tariffs, any Carney overreach, and government pushing legislation in the online space that may have rights implications. Grumbling in the Liberal caucus, many inherited from Trudeau, may also present opportunities for Conservatives.
Provincially, Poilievre has work to do. Doug Ford remains a problem because his anti-tariff, more centrist, Carney-friendly posture undercut the 2025 federal Conservative campaign. Tim Houston has been blunter, saying Conservatives must do “soul searching” and confirming he had no real relationship with Poilievre. Kerry-Lynne Findlay, by contrast, is a warmer link: Poilievre publicly praised her after she won the B.C. Conservative leadership, though critics say her victory may polarize B.C. politics.
In Quebec, Conservatives remain boxed in, competitive in some Quebec City/Chaudière-Appalaches terrain but vulnerable to Bloc nationalist credibility and Liberal federalist competence. On U.S. issues, he has made some improvements: he now names Trump, condemns annexation/tariff threats, backs an all-party CUSMA working group, and argues Canada should build leverage through resources, defence procurement and North American supply chains.
Poilievre has moved from being criticized as too cautious and ambiguous on Alberta separatism in late 2025 to a more assertive federalist posture in summer 2026. His pivot has been to argue that Alberta’s grievances are real but solvable inside Canada, while committing Conservative MPs to campaign for Alberta to stay in “the Canadian family.” Coupled with sharper attacks on U.S. tariffs and annexation rhetoric, Poilievre is working to walk the walk as a “Canada First” unity leader.
The NDP’s summer
While new NDP leader Avi Lewis has seen a small rise in public opinion polling since his election at the end of March, the true test over the summer is whether or not it sustains. The question to test: is the rise a reflection of his leadership, of people naturally making their way back to the NDP after lending their vote to the Liberals, or a direct opposition to what some would say is Mark Carney’s less progressive approach.
Taking a look at my colleague Hilary’s thoughts on public polling, “Avi Lewis remains relatively unknown: 61% of Canadians cannot offer an opinion of him,” one could make the assumption that the rise in NDP fortunes are not due to Canadians being impressed by the new leader, but either a rebalancing of those who lent their vote to the Liberals or displeasure with the current government. And with a -9 in net approval, it’s not a particularly pretty picture of what those who do know him think about him.
Either way, there is still an opportunity in the unknown for Lewis. By defining himself and his offer and sharing both with regular people around the country.
Figuring out and testing who Lewis is, what his offer is, how he differentiates himself from Carney, Poilievre, and Blanchet, and who he’s speaking for will be key in building support.
Who he is: As he’s relatively unknown, establishing who Lewis is as a national leader will be key to test with people who are not card-carrying New Democrats. There is an opportunity in the large amount of people who don’t know him but is he able to be the person with the offer that responds to what people are looking for.
What is his offer: Lewis won the leadership by speaking to what many New Democrats were looking for in their next leader. The big test for him will be how his offer to New Democrats shifts into his offer for regular folks. Does his vision change from one to the other, is he able to communicate his vision in a way regular people understand and does it respond to what people are looking for in their next prime minister.
Where is his support: With him as leader, the game resets. What were the next natural pickups for the NDP under previous leader Jagmeet Singh may be out of shot for Lewis. Alternatively, what was potentially not attainable under Singh can be in play for Lewis. Lewis’ leadership campaign will know where they were able to build support with New Democrats, now they need to test those regions by testing that support with regular people.
How is he different from Carney, Poilievre and Blanchet: The party may see an opportunity for Lewis with those who care about the environment following a loosening of environmental protections under Carney and the resignation of well-respected Minister Steven Guilbeault, but they also have to define Lewis against Carney in other ways, how they manage affordability and who each are fighting for. And the party can’t forget to do the same exercise with Poilievre and Blanchet, as both the Conservatives and the Bloc will be big opponents for the seats they hold and where they have had support in the past.
Perhaps not over the summer but coming soon will be Lewis next big test: By elections. A few vacancies have been announced or are expected in short order: Jonathan Wilkson, Liberal in Vancouver – Capilano (BC), Steven Guilbeault, Liberal in Laurier – Ste-Marie (QC), Alexandre Boulerice, New Democrats in Rosemont – La-Petite-Patrie (QC), Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay, Bloc in Saint-Hyacinthe – Bagot – Acton (QC), Cathay Wagantall, Conservative, Yorkton-Melville (SK), and Nate Erskine-Smith, Liberal in Beaches – East York (ON).
For Lewis, the big test will be those Montreal ridings (Guilbeault’s and the NDP’s Boulerice’s). The NDP traditionally has come second in Laurier – Ste-Marie after holding it for several years and has held Rosemont – La-Petite-Patrie since 2011. Will the NDP be competitive in LSM and can they hold on to RPP will be Lewis’ first big test as leader.