Voter trends in B.C.’s battleground ridings: Earnscliffe’s 2024 election insights 

A lot of polling and analysis has been done in the lead-up to the 2024 B.C. election, and we know that this election is going to be close. In our first-past-the-post electoral system, it is likely that the outcome could be decided in a few key battleground ridings. The Earnscliffe Government Relations and Opinion Research teams compiled a list of 22 battleground ridings to gain insights into voter dynamics in those communities. The battleground ridings were chosen by a close analysis of the 2017 and 2020 election results, recent opinion polling, and input from experts.

This study was conducted between September 19 and October 3, 2024, and surveyed 804 eligible voters in these battlegrounds. Among the topics examined were the key issues animating this election, the favourability of party leaders, the voting preferences of BC United (formerly the BC Liberal Party) and federal Liberal voters, and how likely these voters are to change their vote before October 19^th.  

Key issues driving voter intentions

Voters in the battleground ridings are primarily driven by concerns over affordability and the rising cost of living, followed closely by health care, housing, taxes, and crime/safety. These issues resonate deeply with British Columbians as the economic pressures and post-pandemic realities continue to strain many households. Interestingly, the survey also indicated growing concerns about the environment, mental health, and long-term care, reflecting a broad spectrum of priorities. 

Favourability of party leaders

When it comes to favourable impressions of the three provincial party leaders, BC NDP leader David Eby stands out with a 17-point lead over BC Conservative leader John Rustad, with 45% of respondents viewing Eby favourably, compared to 28% for Rustad.  

Eby’s high approval rating, particularly among decided and leaning BC NDP voters, suggests that his leadership may be a significant factor in garnering support. Among the three leaders, Rustad is the newcomer, having been acclaimed leader of the BC Conservatives only 18 months ago. On the other hand, Sonia Furstenau, leader of the BC Green Party, enjoys strong favourability among Green voters, though the BC Green Party’s influence remains limited in overall voter support. 

Favourability of provincial party leaders

Please click on the tab with the Party’s leader name to see their favourability breakdown by current provincial vote intent (leaning and decided).

Vote intent

Current provincial vote intent (decided and leaning) by vote in 2020 provincial election

One of the most significant findings of the survey is the shift among former BC United / BC Liberal voters, with 54% now intending to vote for the BC Conservatives in the upcoming election. This shift highlights a realignment in British Columbia’s political landscape, as BC United (formerly BC Liberal Party) struggled to retain its previous voter base before suspending its campaign in August to support the BC Conservatives. At the same time, a substantial 21% of voters who voted BC Liberal in the last general election are now planning to support the BC NDP, further highlighting the fluidity of voter allegiances. 

Current provincial vote intent (decided and leaning) by current federal vote intent (decided and leaning)

The survey also explored the relationship between federal and provincial voter intentions, revealing strong alignment across party lines. Four out of five (86%) federal NDP supporters are expected to vote for the provincial BC NDP, while a similar proportion (79%) of federal Green Party supporters will vote for the provincial BC Greens. Interestingly, federal Liberal supporters are significantly more likely to back the BC NDP (69%) over the BC Conservatives (14%), reflecting the challenges in consolidating the centre-right vote. 

Second choice preferences and vote switching

Current provincial vote intent (decided and leaning) by second choice in coming election

Respondents who indicated a first-choice party were then asked if they had a second choice. BC NDP supporters were most likely to say the BC Green Party (49%) and vice versa (44%). For their part, those intending to vote for the Conservative Party of BC were most likely to say they did not know or refused to answer (40%). 

Current provincial vote intent (decided and leaning) by likelihood of changing vote between now and the election

The possibility of vote switching before the election remains a key factor, especially among BC Green Party supporters, with 31% indicating they may change their vote before election day. In contrast, a smaller percentage of Conservative (18%) and NDP (19%) voters expressed the likelihood of switching their vote. These findings suggest that while the BC NDP and BC Conservatives have more solidified voter bases, the Green Party’s support may be more volatile. 

Conclusion

As we approach the final stretch of the 2024 B.C. provincial election, the data suggests it is still a highly competitive race in these battleground ridings, with affordability, health care, and housing remaining the dominant issues. The realignment of former BC United voters towards the BC Conservatives and the potential for vote switching among BC Green Party supporters add further complexity. Leadership favourability, particularly for David Eby, and the evolving political landscape, will be critical in shaping the final result of the upcoming election. 

For more in-depth information about our survey and our findings, please contact Allan Gregg, Gregor Sharp or Anna Lilly.

Methodology

Earnscliffe Strategies conducted an online survey of 804 eligible voters living in battleground ridings between September 19^th and October 3^rd, 2024. For the full list of battleground ridings, please consult Appendix A below. The results are weighted by gender, age, and region, based off the most recent Statistics Canada data available. As this study was conducted using an opt-in non-probability panel, no margin of error is possible. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 3.45 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.

Earnscliffe follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements.

View the survey questionnaire 

Appendix A: Full list of battleground ridings

The selection of the battleground ridings was chosen by combining analysis of the 2017 and 2020 election results, recent opinion polling and conversations with experts. 

Connect with our B.C. experts