Next Monday, October 19, Albertans will vote on a series of ten referendum issues. While most public attention is on the final question on the future of Alberta remaining in Canada, there are also nine additional ballots: five on immigration and citizenship issues and four exploring constitutional change.
This backgrounder focuses on the separation question, the various civil society groups pushing it and those opposing it, the various studies that have explored its implications and potential costs and uncertainties of separation, current public opinion polling, and possible political fallout of next Monday’s vote.
The race to next Monday
Prime Minister Carney kicked off the final week of the referendum campaign by releasing a Thanksgiving message, making a direct appeal for Canadian unity and arguing that major nation-building projects require a united country. He stated, “We can’t build big things on fault lines.” Coincidently, IPSOS released a poll indicating that “among political voices” in Alberta, the PM has the highest favourability ratings in the province, enjoying the support of 51% of citizens.
On Thursday night in Calgary, the Prime Minister spoke to a large crowd and warned of the risks associate with Monday’s vote: “This is not poker. A vote against Canada is a dangerous bluff that will lead to years of deep uncertainty and lost opportunities.”
Today (Friday), he will join Premier Smith for a speech in Red Deer and also speak on Edmonton at a Forever Canadian rally. On the weekend, duelling rallies are scheduled in Edmonton at the legislature grounds. The pro-separation group Let Alberta Decide has announced an event on Saturday and the Alberta Federation of Labour is sponsoring a unity rally on Sunday.
The separation question
The question offers two alternatives:
OPTION 1
“Alberta should remain a province of Canada.”
OPTION 2
“The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”
Civil society groups involved in the separation question
In favour of separation
Alberta Prosperity Project, led by Mitch Syvestre, Chief Spokesperson: Jeffrey Rath
Let Alberta Decide, led by Keith Wilson and Tanya Clemons. Wilson also runs Alberta’s Next Step and the Alberta Transition Council.
Let’s Talk Alberta, run by Chris Scott.
Take Back Alberta and The Centurion Project, both headed by David Parker.
Opposing separation
Forever Canadian, formed by former Deputy Premier Thomas Lukaszuk.
Vote to Stay, founded by former federal Conservative minister Monte Solberg and supported by Jason Kenney and former Alberta Finance Minister Travis Toews.
Lead Not Leave, whose members include Ken Boessenkool, Jared Wesley, Travis Toews, Jim Dinning, Andrew Leach, Trevor Tombe and journalist Jen Gerson of The Line.
Alberta’s Voice, created by strategist Stephen Carter, which is focused on broader public narratives as opposed to participating in the referendum campaign itself.
Major studies of separation
The prospect of Alberta separating from Canada has generated a substantial body of economic, fiscal, constitutional, and public policy analysis. While the studies differ in methodology and assumptions, they consistently conclude that separation would involve significant transitional costs, major institutional restructuring, uncertainty regarding debt allocation and trade arrangements, and complex negotiations involving Indigenous rights, pensions, citizenship, and international recognition. At the same time, some analyses identify potential opportunities associated with greater provincial autonomy over taxation, resource development, regulation, and economic policy.
The Economic and Fiscal Implications of Alberta Separation (2026)
Commissioned by the Government of Alberta and produced by the University of Calgary School of Public Policy, the study deliberately avoided advocating either for or against separation, instead focusing on identifying economic and fiscal risks, opportunities, and uncertainties.
Key findings:
- Separation would entail substantial economic and fiscal uncertainty because many outcomes would depend upon negotiations with Canada, policy choices made by a future Alberta government, and the responses of investors, businesses, and other governments.
- The transition period could cost between approximately $50 billion and $170 billion over five years, depending on whether negotiations proved smooth and cooperative or difficult and adversarial.
- Alberta would likely assume a negotiated share of the federal debt, increasing public debt dramatically and requiring significantly higher debt-servicing expenditures than the province currently faces.
- Alberta would need to establish or replace numerous federal institutions and functions, including systems related to taxation, pensions, border administration, international representation, financial regulation, and national defence.
- While in some scenarios, Alberta could eventually benefit from greater policy autonomy, particularly if negotiations were favourable and economic performance remained strong, other plausible scenarios resulted in weaker economic growth and substantially higher fiscal pressures.
Canada West Foundation: Alberta in Confederation (2026)
The Canada West Foundation undertook a broader examination of separation encompassing constitutional, Indigenous, economic, trade, labour market, and governance issues. The project included contributions from constitutional scholars, economists, former public servants, and business leaders.
The Foundation’s analysis emphasized that while many Albertans’ grievances with Confederation may be genuine, separation would involve extensive economic and political risks that should be understood before any decision is made.
Key findings:
- Separation would require extensive constitutional negotiations and could not be achieved through a unilateral declaration of independence alone. Constitutional amendment procedures, negotiations with the federal government, and the interests of other provinces would all play important roles.
- Indigenous rights and treaties would represent a central consideration in any separation process. Existing treaty relationships involve the Crown and would create significant legal and political complexities for an independent Alberta.
- Labour mobility, interprovincial trade access, and investment flows could be impacted during a transition period, creating uncertainty for employers and workers.
- Establishing an independent Alberta could require more than $200 billion in transition and start-up costs, together with annual ongoing costs exceeding $50 billion. The study also warned that Alberta could face higher borrowing costs, slower economic growth, and reduced investor confidence depending on the outcome of negotiations and market reactions.
Published by the Alberta Prosperity Project, this document is primarily a fiscal plan for an independent Alberta, not a comprehensive independent assessment of the overall economic costs and risks of secession. It focuses on government revenues, expenditures, and institutional arrangements under sovereignty.
Key findings:
- The APP argues Alberta currently contributes approximately $68-75 billion annually in federal taxes while receiving only $22-26 billion in federal spending and transfers, creating what it describes as a net outflow of $44-47 billion per year.
- The APP estimates one-time startup costs of approximately $2.8-5.7 billion to establish the institutions of an independent Alberta.
- An Alberta Pension Plan would begin with approximately $183.7 billion in assets, which would generate approximately $23.34 billion annually in investment returns.
- The APP estimates one-time startup costs of approximately $2.8-5.7 billion to establish the institutions of an independent Alberta.
- The APP concludes that an independent Alberta would run annual surpluses of roughly $35-51 billion, allowing substantial tax reductions while maintaining government services.
The political state of play
Current public opinion research
The most recent public polling suggests that a clear majority of Albertans oppose separation and favour remaining in Canada. A Leger poll published on October 8 found that 70% of Albertans favour remaining in Canada, while 22% favour starting the legal process towards a future referendum. Significantly, Leger found that “Half of Albertans (50%) expect negative economic consequences from the referendum and ongoing separation discussions, compared with 21% who anticipate a positive impact.”
Janet Brown Opinion Research, an Alberta based polling company, found similar results on the “stay/leave” question in a poll published in late September, with 72% supporting “remain” and 23% favouring starting the legal process. In that poll, Brown also looked at where support for separation resided among Albertans and found that “among those polled who said they would vote for the United Conservative Party, 53% said they’d vote for the separation option. Forty per cent said they’d vote to stay in Canada.”
Implications for the Premier Smith and the United Conservative Party
Premier Danielle Smith’s decision to hold the referendum has resulted in a host of negative consequences. Not only has the premier suffered a loss in personal standing with Alberta voters, but it appears the party is shedding support on both sides of the independence debate: from separatists who wish Smith had taken a stronger stance of support for separation, and federalists frustrated by the fact that the referendum is being held and the risks and uncertainties is raises.
Assuming the results of the referendum are a roughly 70%-30% split in favour of Alberta remaining in Canada, the premier faces trouble on two fronts:
- First, with 53% of UCP members favouring separation, her recent statement that she would not hold another referendum “as long as I am premier” should a majority of Albertans vote to remain in Canada on October 19 is problematic. As Jeffrey Rath, a key separatist organizer, said recently, “The logic of independence is such that we’re not going home when this is all over. Do you think we’re just going to stop advocating for a free and independent Alberta?” Already, some supporters of separatism within the party are planning leading a revolt against Smith by seizing control of constituency boards to force a leadership review the way they did in 2022 against Jason Kenney to force his resignation.
- With 70% of Albertans wanting to remain, but 53% of UCP members favouring separation, the party is out of step with public opinion. The Janet Brown September poll found that the UCP has suffered a precipitous drop in public support vis-à-vis the provincial opposition NDP since this past spring. In April, the UCP led the NDP by 13 percentage points, but by late September, the two parties were tied at 41%. In addition, on September 14, the NDP won a byelection in Calgary-Shaw, a previously solid UCP seat, the first time since 1966 that the Alberta NDP has gained a seat in a by-election. To continue as leader of her party, she needs to placate its base whose majority supports separation, but those views increasingly make the party unelectable among the wider Alberta electorate.
It is clear that both of these possible consequences are on Smith’s mind. In a recent meeting with party supporters, she appealed for party unity and pointed to the risks of an NDP government:
“Are we going to stay united as a movement? That’s a question each one of us is going to have to ask and ask our friends and our neighbours.
Knowing I have a different pathway to get autonomy than some of the others are proposing, is that the better pathway to achieve more autonomy?
Or is splitting our movement apart and electing an NDP government going to serve us well? That is the reality of what happens when our beautiful movement splits.”
– Premier Danielle Smith
A final wildcard
In referenda as well as elections, turnout is key. While there are indications that the turnout will be substantial, the separatist forces are encouraging voters who are concerned about separatism but want change in the Ottawa-Alberta relationship to “send them a message”. In response, the Prime Minister has explicitly argued that Albertans should not treat the referendum as merely a protest vote or a way to “send a message” to Ottawa, because a vote to begin the separation process would have real consequences. He has repeatedly characterized the referendum choice as an “important decision about their future” and the start of a “long and uncertain process” rather than a symbolic gesture.
Appendix / The other referendum questions: immigration, citizenship and constitutional questions
Question 1: Immigration Control
Do you support the Government of Alberta taking increased control over immigration for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities?
Question 2: Eligibility for Provincial Programs
Do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law mandating that only Canadian citizens, permanent residents and individuals with an Alberta-approved immigration status will be eligible for provincially funded programs, such as health care, education and other social services?
Question 3: Waiting Period for Temporary Residents
Assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for social support programs as they do now, do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring all individuals with a non-permanent legal immigration status to reside in Alberta for at least 12 months before qualifying for any provincially funded social support programs?
Question 4: Fees for Health Care and Education
Assuming that all Canadian citizens and permanent residents continue to qualify for public health care and education as they do now, do you support the Government of Alberta charging a reasonable fee or premium to individuals with a non-permanent immigration status living in Alberta for their and their family’s use of the healthcare and education systems?
Question 5: Proof of Citizenship to Vote
Do you support the Government of Alberta introducing a law requiring individuals to provide proof of citizenship, such as a passport, birth certificate or citizenship card, to vote in an Alberta provincial election?
Question 6: Provincial Appointment of Judges
Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to have provincial governments, and not the federal government, select the justices appointed to provincial King’s Bench and Appeal courts?
Question 7: Abolishing the Senate
Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to abolish the unelected federal Senate?
Question 8: Opting Out of Federal Programs with Compensation
Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs that intrude on provincial jurisdiction such as health care, education, and social services, without a province losing any of the associated federal funding for use in its social programs?
Question 9: Provincial Laws Prevailing Over Federal Laws
Do you support the Government of Alberta working with the governments of other willing provinces to amend the Canadian Constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference by giving a province’s laws dealing with provincial or shared areas of constitutional jurisdiction priority over federal laws when the province’s laws and federal laws conflict?
The Globe and Mail has published a useful and comprehensive guide to these questions that provides background on why they are on the ballot.