• May 11, 2022
  • Insights

ON-Election polling: tracking Ontario voters’ shifting support

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Written by Doug Anderson, Allan Gregg and Hilary Martin

PCs shore up lead in second week of campaigning

The incumbent party leads across almost all key demographic segments

Since last week, when our tracking data indicated the race may be tightening, the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (PC) has managed to shore up support. This week’s vote intent numbers, based on an online survey of 1,000 Ontarians of voting age conducted between May 6 to 8, shows the PCs at 39% of the decided and leaning vote, the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) at 27% and the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP) at 24%. To see how each party fares by sex, age, area, and region, use the drop-down menu in the chart below.  

Across every region in the province, the PCs lead or are statistically tied for the lead. Significantly, PC support has risen in Toronto, where they sit at 36%, three points ahead of the Liberals, and in the GTA outside Toronto, where almost half (49%) of decided and leaning voters say they intend to vote for the governing party. Driven by these gains in Toronto and the GTA, the PCs now also lead in urban Ontario at 34%, with the Liberals at 30% and the NDP at 27% and continue to extend their lead in suburban Ontario (42% PC, 27% OLP, 22% NDP).   

Among female voters, the race remains statistically tied between the PCs and the Liberals at 33% and 31% respectively. Among male voters, the PCs continue to lead with 45% of the decided and leaning vote. Of note, while the Liberals and NDP were tied for top support among younger voters ages 18-34 last week, support for the PCs among this group has risen to 31%, while support for the two opposition parties has fallen (27% for the Liberals, 29% for the NDP).  

This week, we asked decided and leaning voters which party, if any, would be their second choice. Among current PC voters, none of the parties have a plurality of second choice support. Instead, a third (33%) don’t know who their second choice would be. A quarter (24%) would shift their support to the Liberals, while 17% say the NDP is their second choice. In contrast, the NDP stands to gain significantly if support for the Liberals shifts – 62% of current Liberal voters say the NDP is their second choice. Current NDP voters are less unified. While the plurality (42%) say their second choice would be the Liberals, a quarter (23%) would support the Greens and 15% would pick the PCs.  

Methodology 

This survey was sponsored by Earnscliffe Strategies and conducted by Leger using a random sampling of panelists from Leger’s proprietary online panel. The survey was conducted with 1,000 individuals from Ontario between May 6 to 8, 2022. The data was weighted to be reflective of the Ontario population by age, region, sex, education and children under 18 in the household based on Census data. Since this survey was conducted using an online panel, no margin of error may be calculated.  

Earnscliffe follows the CRIC Public Opinion Research Standards and Disclosure Requirements that can be found here: https://canadianresearchinsightscouncil.ca/standards/ 

View the survey questionnaire | Download the full data tables 

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