The Ontario Legislature rose earlier today, after a last-minute push of progress on a number of pieces of legislation. In the last weeks of sitting, Doug Ford’s Ontario Progressive Conservatives (PCs) chose to exercise their majority and use time allocation to make quick work of the legislative process and fast track 12 bills. Government House Leader Steve Clark announced on Thursday afternoon that the Legislature would return on March 23, 2026.
This session, the PCs saw some wins with a second nation-building project designation, another Ring of Fire Access Road, and a number of key pieces of legislation being passed. In November, the province saw its Nickel Crawford Project in Timmins added to the second tranche of nation-building projects referred to the Major Projects Office. This new mine is in addition to the previously announced Darlington New Nuclear Project and Alto High-Speed Rail. The Premier will undoubtedly continue to lobby for projects of his choice in the Ring of Fire region and his favoured 401 tunnel.
While the session may have been productive legislatively for the PCs, it wasn’t without challenges. We saw the Skills Development Fund scandal continue to grow, the province saw continued layoffs in manufacturing sectors, and Premier Ford’s bold Reagan anti-tariff ad had unintended consequences.
Ontario continues to feel a disproportionate share of the impacts of the continued trade dispute between Canada and the United States, with more layoffs being announced in key sectors over recent weeks, including 1000 lost jobs at Algoma Steel is Sault Ste. Marie. This comes just three months after the Ontario government and federal government together announced $500 million in funding for the company, $100 million being from the province. Ontario’s Minister of Economic Development, Job Creation and Trade Vic Fedeli commented that everyone knew these layoffs were coming, as the company “talked about these electric arc furnace layoffs for a long time now.” and that the timelines for the upgrades were pushed forward because of U.S. tariffs, in an attempt to make the steel producer more competitive in the market. Minister Fedeli defended the loan, saying it kept the lights on at Algoma and that the company wouldn’t be in the same situation it is right now without the loan.
Where do they stand?
The PCs are still riding a relatively positive wave of public opinion polling, sitting at 46 per cent, down 4 per cent since last February’s election. While the Ontario Liberal Party begins of process of selecting a new leader, it maintains 28 per cent of the vote with the Ontario NDP sitting at 17 per cent—up 2 per cent from the election.
While the PCs maintain a positive hold of public opinion polling, Premier Doug Ford’s own personal favourability ratings continue to struggle. In a recent poll looking at the popularity of First Ministers across the country, Premier Ford edges out only Quebec Premier Francois Legault to be the country’s second least popular leader. Premier Ford’s approval rating sits at just 34 per cent, while the Country’s most popular premier—Manitoba’s Wab Kinew—enjoys 58 per cent support.
This drop in approval is likely driven by factors external to President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S., Premier Ford has been perceived as a leader in standing up for the country’s interests, earning the moniker of “Captain Canada”, but tariffs no longer a top-of-mind issue for many Ontarians struggling with a high cost of living, as well as those concerned about healthcare, housing affordability, public safety concerns, and job losses and weak economic growth.
Skills Development Fund
The Skills Development Fund controversy continues to plague the Ford government, with the latest news that the Ontario Provincial Police have launched a criminal investigation into Keel, a company that received millions from the jobs training program. Like many other SDF recipients facing scrutiny, Keel received a “low” evaluation from bureaucrats before the minister’s office intervened in favour of the company.
Ontario Labour Minister David Piccini has been implicated along with several of lobbyists and companies associated with SDF funding but retains his cabinet position despite opposition parties proclaiming him the “Minister of Favours” and calling for his dismissal. Minister Piccini continues to defend the SDF process in response. On December 3, he delivered a keynote address to the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto, outlining the government’s plan to protect Ontario jobs from economic uncertainty.
Possible cabinet and deputy minister shuffles
With several ongoing issues facing his government, speculation continues as to whether Premier Ford will announce a cabinet shuffle. Premier Ford could use the Legislature’s holiday break as time to allow any newly appointed ministers to get up to speed on their new portfolios while benefiting from removing some members of the cabinet who are perceived to have not performed well.
A potential revision to the roster of the province’s deputy ministers, the most-senior officials in each ministry, may also be on the table. John Ostrander, a federal deputy minister, has recently been named the deputy minister for public service renewal in Ontario, while Doug Jones will retire from his role at the Ministry of Transport.
What to expect in 2026
The legislature is now set to resume on March 23, having been delayed from its originally scheduled return date of February 17. With the government’s use of time allocation to fast-track bills over the last number of weeks, this will likely allow the government to replenish its docket of legislative priorities. The government has launched their pre-budget consultations, which end January 30, to inform their 2026 Ontario Budget. So far, we know to expect an update to Ontario’s Tax Action Plan, which focuses on personal and corporate income taxes, in the next budget as indicated in the Fall Economic Statement.
Beginning January 5, 2026, the Ontario Public Service (OPS) and its provincial agencies, boards and commission public bodies are mandating a full five-day return to office work. These changes have not been well received, with workers’ unions pointing out that some ministries don’t have the space. About one in six of the province’s 60,000 public service employees have requested to work from home at least one day of the week. AMAPCEO, who represents over 17,000 OPS employees, recently walked out of their monthly meeting with the government after determining the OPS has no plan or motivation to review alternative work arrangement requests. Also, against the mandate, the OPS Employees Union has filed an application with the Ontario Labour Relations Board and is advising members to file individual grievances regarding their specific arrangements.
Toronto-area transit announcements are likely to continue in the new year. Following the recent opening of the Finch West LRT, Premier Ford signalled the potential for the Line 5 Eglinton Crosstown LRT to potentially open in the new year. The Eglinton LRT and its long delays have been a persistent irritant for Premier Ford as its original 2020 target has been continuously pushed back. The project was initiated in 2011 under the previous Liberal government and continued construction under the PCs, going at least $1 billion over budget. The Eglinton LRT has now reached substantial completion and full operational control of the line has been transferred to the TTC who will determine the start date of passenger service with Metrolinx.
Elections across the province’s municipalities are also set for October 26, 2026. In Toronto, City Councillor Brad Bradford is the only competitor so far to formally announce plans to challenge Mayor Olivia Chow’s presumed re-election bid. Former Toronto Mayor John Tory, whose 2023 surprise resignation led to Chow’s special election victory, and Marco Mendicino, a former federal minister and former chief of staff to Prime Minister Carney, are also said to be considering campaigns (although Mendicino has all but ruled out a run). Despite facing each other as rival candidates in the 2014 mayoral election, Premier Ford and Mayor Chow have maintained a good, if not friendly, working relationship over the past two years.
Premier Ford has frequently called for Prime Minister Carney to greenlight his 401 tunnel under the Major Projects Office, while those calls have not been answered yet. The government has gone ahead initiated a feasibility study, with a $9.1 million contract going to WSP Canada Inc. The study is expected to run through to 2027 but will likely remain a key talking point for the Premier, as first ministers across the country continue to campaign for their projects to be given the designation of “nation-building.”
Opposition watch
Ontario NDP
Caitlin Pettifor has been recently appointed as Chief of Staff to Ontario NDP (ONDP) and Official Opposition Leader Marit Stiles. Pettifor has over ten years of previous campaign experience was involved in the Alberta NDP’s 2015 majority win under Rachel Notley, the Manitoba NDP’s majority win under Premier Wab Kinew in 2023 and worked on the Ontario NDP’s 2018 campaign. Pettifor’s track record in Alberta and Manitoba NDP victories signals a shift toward a more professionalized and aggressive campaign strategy, positioning the ONDP to capitalize on voter discontent in 2026 and beyond.
The Official Opposition hasn’t had to look hard for criticism of Premier Ford’s government with the Skills Development Fund scandal offering endless opportunities for condemnation. The Ontario NDP continues to focus on results and the perceived lack thereof, observing a bleak economic outlook, job losses, and the housing crisis as worsening symptoms of the Ford government’s policies. The ONDP is framing these issues as symptoms of systemic mismanagement under Premier Ford, reinforcing its narrative that affordability and public services must be prioritized over corporate favours and government advertising
Reacting to the Auditor General’s recent report, Stiles criticized the government’s rising spending on government advertising, instead of on priorities like affordability, homeownership, and jobs. The ONDP also commented on findings about access to primary care and cuts to healthcare.
The ONDP is expected to advance proposals on housing affordability such as stronger rent control and public housing investment and to push for healthcare reforms aimed at expanding public primary care access in the next legislative session. Outside of Queen’s Park, early signs suggest the ONDP will invest heavily in grassroots organizing and digital outreach under Pettifor’s guidance. With the Liberals in leadership flux, the ONDP sees an opportunity to consolidate progressive voters and sharpen contrasts on housing and healthcare.
Ontario Liberal Party (OLP)
Ontario Liberal MPPs have focused on the worsening unemployment and youth unemployment rates, the continued controversy around the Skills Development Fund, lack of investment in hospitals, the rising cost of living, and a lack of action from the Ford government in the recent Fall Economic Statement and in the legislature.
The OLP is set to enter their third leadership race in six years after leader Bonnie Crombie stepped down after only receiving 57% of the vote in her leadership review (notwithstanding the party winning 30% of the popular vote in last February’s election and regaining official party status by doubling its seat count in the Ontario Legislature). She will remain as leader without a seat in the legislature until the next leader is chosen. In the meantime House Leader John Fraser leads the Liberal caucus in the legislature.
No date has been sent for the leadership election, but the Leadership Vote Committee created in September has surveyed party members on how to structure the leadership selection process. No date has been set for the leadership election, but the Leadership Vote Committee created in September has surveyed party members on how to structure the leadership selection process. Leadership race rules and timeline are expected to be released in January.
Certain names have been suggested as potential candidates including:
- Hon. Nate Erskine-Smith, current Liberal MP who came second in the previous OLP leadership race, and was recently dropped from cabinet
- Mike Crawley, the former president of both the Ontario and Federal Liberal parties
- Rob Cerjanec, newly elected Liberal MPP for Ajax
- Vikram Handa, a human rights lawyer who sought the federal Liberal Davenport nomination in 2015.
- Dr. Adil Shamji, an emergency physician and MPP who ran for Liberal leadership in 2023 before dropping out to back Crombie
- Dr. Danielle Martin, chair of U of T Family Medicine
- Dr. Andrew Boozary, a primary care physician and executive at the University Health Network,
- Ted Hsu, current MPP and former MP who also ran against Crombie in the 2023 leadership race
- Yvan Baker, a current MP who has been considered as a potential leadership candidate in the past
- Stephanie Smyth, a current MPP and former Toronto news broadcaster
- Lee Fairclough, a current MPP and former hospital CEO
- Navdeep Bains, a former federal cabinet minister and current VP at Rogers
Liberal MP Nate Erskine Smith is considered to have an edge at this early stage of the race, given his previous leadership campaign, knowledge of the process and his previously identified support among identified party members. He also finished a strong second to Ms. Crombie in the 2023 Leadership. Mike Crawley is a favourite of a great many Liberal veterans, given his past experience and success in Ontario’s clean energy sector. He could also benefit from any perception that Nate Erskine-Smith was not sufficiently supportive of the previous leader.
Navdeep Bains would be considered a formidable candidate, given his past service as a prominent Liberal organizer and former federal Minister under Justin Trudeau, but doubts remain as to whether he will enter the race. Of the existing Liberal caucus, MPPs Adil Shamji and Ted Hsu are highly regarded and would likely benefit from their involvement in the previous Ontario Liberal Leadership contest. Already having a seat in the Legislature is considered an advantage by many, noting that Bonnie Crombie’s absence from the legislature as well as her inability to win a seat in last February’s election was perceived to have worked against her.
So far, the only candidate who has officially declined to run is Liberal MP and former federal cabinet minister Hon. Karina Gould who, after considering the opportunity, released a statement laying out her plans to remain in Ottawa.
Key upcoming dates in 2026
- January 30 – Pre-budget consultations end.
- January 30-February 1 – Ontario PC Convention.
- March 23 – Return of the Ontario Legislature (originally scheduled for February 17).
- April / May – Likely 2026 Ontario Budget.
- TBD – Ontario Liberal leadership election.
