After a short 29-day campaign, Ontario voters headed to the polls on February 27th and re-elected Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party for a historic third consecutive majority. It is the first time since 1959 that an Ontario Premier has achieved this kind of electoral success.
Unofficial seat count
- Progressive Conservative Party – 80
- Ontario New Democratic Party – 27
- Ontario Liberal Party – 14
- Green Party of Ontario – 2
- Independent – 1
While turnout was disappointingly low and showed that fewer than half of eligible voters cast a ballot, voter turnout was up slightly to just above 45% from the historic low of 44% in 2022. Prior to election day, Elections Ontario said that 6.14 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots, during the three-day advanced polls. This was down from nearly 10 per cent who participated in the 10 days of advanced polling in 2022.
After her first official introduction to Ontarians across the province, the Ontario NDP and Leader Marit Stiles managed to hold on to official opposition party status, by sending 27 MPPs to Queen’s Park. While dropping in popular vote from 23% to 18% and finishing well behind the third-party Liberals in total votes cast, the NDP managed to maintain their seat count due to the efficiency of their vote. While the Ontario Liberal Party saw a significant gain in their proportion of the popular vote to nearly 30%, leading the NDP by almost 12%, they were not able to translate it into seats. While the OLP was able to gain enough seats to achieve official party status for the first time since 2018, the NDP were able to translate their lower popular vote into nearly twice as many seats in the Legislature. As it was in the 2022 election, provincial polling data throughout the election had difficulty properly showing the efficiency of the NDP’s ground game and their support on election day.
In her first election as Liberal Leader, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie led her party to official party status but failed to secure her own seat in the Legislature. In her concession speech, Crombie confirmed to the crowd that she plans to stay on as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party.
While the overall results were in line with polling and not a surprise, there were some interesting riding results, and the OLP did make some noteworthy gains on their road to official party status.
Toronto—St. Paul’s – OLP candidate and former journalist Stephanie Smyth picked up Toronto—St. Paul’s from NDP MPP and former critic for Culture and Women’s Social & Economic Opportunities Jill Andrew.
Etobicoke—Lakeshore – Parliamentary Assistant to the Solicitor General Christine Hogarth was defeated by Liberal Candidate Lee Fairclough, to become Etobicoke—Lakeshore’s newest MPP. Fairclough was previously a Senior Vice President of clinical care at the Centre for Addiction Mental Health.
Nepean – Voters in the Ottawa riding elected Liberal candidate Tyler Watt to take the seat previously held by former PC MPP and Cabinet Minister Lisa MacLeod. MacLeod had stepped aside from the riding after six consecutive successful campaigns in the riding, which has been historically Conservative since 1998.
Ajax – In one of the closer races of the evening, Liberal Candidate Rob Cerjanec edged out a win over former PC MPP Patrice Barnes. As of Friday morning, Cerjanec had won the riding by only 331 votes.
Haldimand-Norfolk – In one of the more interesting races of the evening, Independent Candidate Bobbi Ann Brady took a firm win in the riding of Haldimand-Norfolk, in what is traditionally a Conservative held riding. Brady defeated the closest contender, PC Candidate Amy Martin, by over 20,000 votes securing 63.7% of the overall vote.
Sault Ste. Marie – In a tight race that the PC Party looked to hold on to, PC Candidate Chris Scott was able to eek out a win in the riding of Sault Ste. Marie—a riding previously held by PC MPP Ross Romano who chose to not seek election this year and had held the riding since 2017. NDP candidate Lisa Vezeau-Allen came up just short, losing by just 118 votes to Scott, who received 13,082 votes compared to Vezeau-Allen’s 12,964.
Parry Sound – Muskoka – While the Green Party of Ontario managed to hold their previous two seats, their push to flip another in their favor came up just short, but likely closer than PC candidate and Cabinet Minister Graydon Smith would have liked in Parry Sound – Muskoka. As of Monday morning, Minister Smith had held his riding by a margin of 2,371 votes, or a margin of just over 5% of the total vote.
Campaign recap
Premier Ford’s gamble to call the provincial election more than a year ahead of the June 2026 fixed election date was heavily criticized by his opponents throughout the campaign but has paid off for the PC Leader. The Premier stated he was calling an election to acquire a new mandate from the Ontario people to address the challenging economic decisions that loom over the province and country as a whole, as the new Trump administration threatens to upend the Canadian economy with widespread tariffs.
Throughout the election, Premier Ford continued to focus his messaging on the need for a strong mandate to respond to these threats, which resonated with the worries that Ontarians—and Canadians in general—have with the prospect of tariffs. With potential tariffs touching nearly all facets of Canadian life, Ford was able to manage the focus of the election while spending a considerable amount of time in the U.S. both alone and with his Premier counterparts. Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie and Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles attempted to shift the conversation throughout the campaign back to traditional issues such as healthcare, housing and the cost of living, but were unable to surmount the elephant that currently lives in each room of every Canadian household in the country: economic relations with our closest neighbor.
From the beginning, Premier Ford utilized the urgency associated with the tariff threat to “Protect Ontario”, which allowed for a snap election call and short writ period which does not always pay off for incumbents due to the public’s traditional perception of rushed campaigns. However, the gravity of the issue allowed the PCs to capitalize on their incumbency and existing majority status in the Legislature while the opposition parties struggled to quickly nominate a full slate of candidates and develop fully costed platforms.
Aside from taking on Premier Ford and the leviathan that seemingly is the PC Party, Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie and Ontario NDP Leader Marit Stiles had the added challenge of differentiating themselves within the “progressive majority”.
The newest of the party leaders, Bonnie Crombie, attempted to shift the conversation away from tariffs and focus on a one-issue campaign centred around healthcare and the PCs’ record on the issue. Prior to the Trump Administration’s tariff threats, this may have been an effective method, however the political reality of economic worries had a drastic effect on Crombie’s ability to shake-up Ontario’s focus. For example, she centred her campaign on the promise to connect every Ontarian with a family doctor. She continued this focus during the leaders’ debate where she did attempt to attack Ford on his government’s record on healthcare, while connecting with Ontarians through her family’s struggles with addiction. This was an instance that allowed Crombie to stand out from NDP leader Marit Stiles and provided one of her first public opportunities to introduce herself to voters.
Marit Stiles hit a consistent stride throughout the campaign, also focusing on health care but expanding her messaging to affordability as well. The NDP included steps to end encampments in the province and plans to address chronic homelessness through the creation of 60,000 supportive housing units. Although it was her first campaign at the helm of a provincial party, she appeared calm and collected throughout, including during the leaders’ debate. In her first official introduction to Ontarians, Stiles was able to connect with people and tell them how she would make changes to their benefit. Polling showed the more people heard from Stiles, the more they liked her. Apart from positive attention particularly around the party’s plan to address homelessness, Stiles suffered from an inability to speak to specific policies around the mental health crisis and the perceived inability to create lasting memorable moments throughout the campaign.
What’s next for another Progressive Conservative government
As the dust settles on the election, the PCs will be working to have their new cabinet sworn in swiftly, with the Legislature likely to return the third week of March and a budget shortly thereafter. The potential implementation of tariffs on March 4th, will be the primary factor in determining the contents of the Ford Government’s next budget, ensuring they are prepared to deal with the economic fallout associated with them. Expect cabinet, government mandates and the budget to all focus on Canada-U.S. relations and the preservation and promotion of Ontario domestic business and manufacturing. Although this is an incumbent government, we are likely to see shifts in ministries to address the new priorities of the government agenda.
While NDP Leader Marit Stiles reflected to a group of her supporters on Thursday night that the results were not everything that she had hoped for, she recommitted the NDP to continue to hold the government to account with “our usual fight and our determination, but also with love, hope and optimism”. She will head back to Queen’s Park with a continued focus on affordability, health care and education. Stiles did however note that she was willing to offer Premier Ford any help that the opposition party could possibly provide to face the threats of President Donald Trump. “The threat is real, and I deeply believe we can overcome it with a strong Team Ontario and a strong Team Canada approach.” she said to the crowd of supporters. After a strong debate performance, Stiles and the Ontario NDP are already eyeing what’s next: building on their performance this election to take on Premier Ford in the next provincial election.
Crombie has pledged to stay on as party leader, despite her loss in the Mississauga East—Cooksville riding. Now, she faces the choice of whether to contest a by-election in the next few months or remain on the outside of the Ontario Legislature to continue to rebuild the party. The Ontario Liberal Party will conduct a leadership review according to its constitution, which states that a resolution calling for a Leadership Contest shall be automatically placed on the agenda of an Annual Meeting not later than two years after a provincial general election. However, Crombie can point to the considerable gains her party made in this election to now have official party status.
Insights in this piece contributed by Bailey Stafford, Charles Bird, Geoff Norquay, Marty von Wuthenau, Mélanie Richer, Nastassia Varela.
