Over the weekend, the leaders participated in two debates: February 14th in North Bay and February 17th in Toronto. Following the debates, the popular vote projection remained steady, with the PCs at 44%, the Ontario Liberal Party at 28%, the Ontario NDP at 18%, and the Ontario Greens at 7%.
The race for official opposition remains uncertain, depending on whether the Liberals can overcome the NDP’s ability to mobilize its vote more efficiently. Before the legislature was dissolved, the NDP held nine of Toronto’s 25 seats—roughly 32% of its total at Queen’s Park. Polling aggregates suggest the PCs maintain a strong lead over both the NDP and Liberals in other regions.
Ford’s campaign touring schedule indicates the PCs see the NDP as vulnerable in southwestern Ontario ridings like Windsor West and London—Fanshawe, as well as in northern Ontario, where the NDP made gains in 2022. Meanwhile, Bonnie Crombie has begun appealing directly to NDP voters, positioning herself as the only viable alternative to Ford.
Debate highlights
February 14 debate
Ahead of the Friday’s debate, NDP and Greens both released their northern platforms. The Green Party made commitments to more housing, family doctors, and tax cuts for people who make less than $65,000 a year. Specifically, they want to recruit 350 doctors in northern Ontario. An NDP government would double residency positions at the Northern Ontario School of Medicine and would hire at least 350 doctors in that region, including 200 family physicians.
During the debate, Ford was forced onto the defensive on his government’s record on housing. The PCs said in 2022 they would build 1.5 million homes by 2031, but the province is not close to reaching that target. An emerging theme throughout this debate was that Ford directed most of his attacks at Crombie, including going after the housing record in Mississauga during her time as mayor.
Crombie shared her personal story about her father’s struggles with addictions and related to the ongoing addiction issues the province is experiencing. She said that addiction issues are a provincial issue that have been downloaded onto municipalities, and she wants the province to assume responsibility. Her personal story did allow voters to see her in an alternative light and allow to raise her profile on the debate stage.
A main focal point for the northern debate was the need for more attention to be paid to northern highways. Stiles noted the poor condition of the northern Ontario, highlighting Highways 11, 17, and 69. There were discussions of adding a fourth lane to Highway 69, which connects Sudbury to Parry Sound. Ford received cheers from the audience when he promised to bring back the Northlander train, connecting Toronto to Timmins.
February 17 debate
PC Leader Doug Ford remained measured and calm during Monday’s debate against the three other leaders and pitched himself as the best candidate to “protect Ontario” – especially when it comes to Donald Trump’s tariff threats and pocketbook issues facing the voters. It is clear the Ford strategy is to stay on message about tariffs and avoid speaking about such issues as the primary care crisis and his proposed tunnel under Highway 401. Ford repeatedly singled out the Liberal leader, by bringing up her record as the Mississauga mayor and claimed that she will raise taxes. His main weakness was the controversy over the Greenbelt. Ford fumbled the question that touched on the land development swap scandal, which the RCMP is still investigating. Ford also never addressed the price tag of the tunnel underneath the 401, which is one of the most expensive campaigns promises ever made by an Ontario party leader.
As for Bonnie Crombie – the Ontario Liberal Leader – she came the closest to knocking Ford off his game. Crombie’s stakes were the highest because she is still new to the job of leader, and Ontarians have not seen her in the legislature. The debates were a key opportunity to introduce herself to voter bases beyond the GTA and a chance to do damage control for the PC attack ads on her that have been running for months.
Crombie came off as edgy and performative and read her closing statement off the page – instead of memorizing it like the other leaders. She spent a large portion of the debate attempting to knock Ford off his talking points and chipping away at the “For the People” persona that Ford has portrayed throughout his time in politics. She also was unable to answer the question of when there was going to be a fully costed platform from the Liberals and did not address the criticism that her middle-class tax cut does not help anyone earning less than $50,000 per year.
However, she was able to differentiate herself from Stiles for the race to be official opposition. Crombie hammered Ford on healthcare and affordability. Crombie captured the most attention and dominated Google searches during the debate.
Stiles was calm and in command of her facts. Although appearing comfortable on screen, she did lack moments that were memorable. She was unable to provide specifics on some of policies, specifically dealing with the mental health crisis. Stiles did drop a bombshell against Crombie, alleging that the Liberals received $25,000 in political donations from “private health-care insiders”.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner focused his time on articulating his party’s policies and effectively boosted his profile in his quest to possibly add another seat at Queen’s Park. Schreiner mainly faltered when he was called out for dropping one of his longest campaign promises: eliminating Catholic school boards.
As the election approaches next week, it will be interesting to see whether the debates affected both results and voter turnout.
Insights in this piece contributed by Nastassia Varela and Geoff Norquay.
