State of play
As the Ontario legislature is approaching the holidays, there is something in the air that feels like an election. Whether it is the government’s fast tracking of several bills, or the year-end deadline that Premier Ford has provided his caucus members to decide if they will seek re-election, there are multiple indications that we could be into an Ontario election early in 2025, more than a year ahead of the fixed election date of June 2026.
Ontario’s economy is still facing challenges such as the high cost of living and the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties that affect its growth. Real growth domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2024, following growth of 0.7 percent in the first quarter. As interest rates continue to decline, real GDP growth is projected to increase to 1.7 percent in 2025. Inflation remains in the 2 percent Bank of Canada range, around 2.5 percent for 2024 and is projected to lower to 2.1 percent in 2025.
Ontario’s labour market has grown by almost 200,000 since the end of last year. However, the increase in employment has been outpaced by labour force growth due to strong underlying population growth. As a result, Ontario’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9 percent this fall.
Here are some updates that have shaken up the shorter fall session:
- According to the Ontario Auditor General’s most recent report, the cost of relocation of the Ontario Science Centre to Ontario Place increased by $400M in less than eight months. A recent business case analysis suggested that keeping the Science Centre, at its current site, would cost $1.3 billion over 50 years, compared with $1.047 billion over 50 years to move it to Ontario Place.
- In a letter to Ontario mayors, Premier Ford wrote that he is planning to introduce enhanced legislative powers to allow police and municipalities to clear homeless encampments, warning that he is prepared to use the notwithstanding clause in the Charter of Rights and Freedoms if courts interfere. Ford is acting on requests from a dozen of the province’s mayors for remedies, such as new powers to arrest repeat trespassers and ban the use of public drugs. This is not the first time that Premier Ford has used the notwithstanding clause. In 2022, Ford used the clause to limit political advertising after a court struck down provincial legislation in advance of the 2022 election. Later that year, he introduced and withdrew the legislation that used the clause to block the education union from their right to strike.
According to 388Canada, the Progressive Conservatives maintain the lead with 47 percent of the popular vote, the Ontario Liberal Party at 25 percent, the Ontario NDP’s at 19 percent of the vote, and the Green Party at 5 percent of the vote.
Canada-U.S. relationship
On November 25, 2024, President-elect Donald Trump vowed to impose a 25 precent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico if the two countries did not take steps to stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the United States. Premier Ford commented to the media that Trump’s tariff threat was “like a family member stabbing you right in the heart”. Ford said that there would be “no choice” but to retaliate if the incoming Trump administration did go through on the tariffs.
On the last sitting day of the Fall, Premier Ford went on the offensive suggesting that Ontario would cut off energy exports to the United States to retaliate against the proposed tariff. Ford has spent the fall playing up the ability for Ontario to sell its clean power all the way to the southern United States, and he is now using it to challenge the tariff.
The Ontario government has launched a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign in the United States highlighting America’s close ties with Ontario. Ontario’s ad campaign includes a 60-second television advertisement, as well as two 15-second spots, and ads for transit shelters, billboards and print. It will also be featured in the Washington airport during the holiday season, as well as in other target markets. The ads will air on Fox News during prime-time hours and on ESPN during NFL football games.
Prior to the tariff announcement, Premier Ford had argued for bilateral trade deals with the US and Mexico – instead of NAFTA or CUSMA in 2026. Ford criticized Mexico for allowing Chinese investment into their country as the main reason not to continue with a trilateral trade agreement. Ford discussed with all 13 territorial and provincial premiers to align their call on the federal government to negotiate a bilateral deal with the United States.
Government priorities
Ontario’s Affordable Energy Future: The Pressing Case for More Power
Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) has released an updated electricity demand forecast that shows the province will need 75 percent more electricity by 2050.
The Affordable Energy Act is going to enable the implementation of the province’s first-ever integrated energy plan that ensures the entire energy sector is aligned with Ford’s pro-growth agenda.
The implementation of changing demands for energy begins with the legislative changes through the Affordable Energy Act:
- Integrated Energy Plan: Ontario is establishing the first-ever, all-energy approach that considers electricity, natural gas, hydrogen and other fuels. The integrated plan will help manage the change and growing demand by providing clear signals and long-term confidence to sectors and investors. A key component of the integrated plan is the ability to forecast for energy needs into the future, which IESO plays a critical role in providing forecasts.
- Nuclear Power in Generation Build Out: Nuclear energy provides more than half of the province’s electricity supply and will remain central to Ontario’s energy strategy. The plan will include the ongoing refurbishment of reactors at Darlington and Bruce nuclear stations.
- Expand Energy Efficiency Programs: The Ontario government is introducing a significant expansion of energy efficiency programs for consumers by expanding funding and the mandate of the IESO.
- Build More EV Chargers: A continued improve access to and remove roadblocks for building affordable EV charging infrastructure and allow for greater choice, access and safe uptake of electricity mobility options across Ontario.
- Reduce Costs for Last Mile Connections: As Ontario builds more housing, there will be many new customers to connect to the energy system. An efficient connections framework that reduces barriers to customers will be essential to ensure the energy system supports growth. The ability to attract investment and realize the province’s housing goals will also depend on modernizing utilities as well as supportive and efficient regulatory processes.
On December 11, Energy Minister Stephen Lecce expanded the Ontario energy plan by conducting the largest competitive energy procurement in the province’s history to meet the energy demand. The government has increased the target for the procurement from 5,000 megawatts to 7,5000 megawatts. IESO will begin the government’s Second Long-Term Procurement (LT2) and implement the increased procurement target.
Red tape reduction and reducing gridlock
The Fall 2024 Red Tape Reduction Package introduces additional initiatives that will build on the actions Ontario has taken to cut red tape to date to reduce expenses by $1 billion. There are over 550 red tape measures that have been introduced since 2018.
The Cutting Red Tape, Building Ontario Act, 2024 contains over 60 new ‘burden reduction’ initiatives including:
- Freezing fees for knowledge and road test for Ontario drivers
- Making the admission process easier for people seeking long-term care
- Speeding up operations at Landlord and Tenant Board
- Proposing regulatory changes to make it easier for building officials to work access provincial boundaries
Further, the legislation for reducing gridlock – taking out many bike lanes in the City of Toronto –received Royal Assent in late November. In response, Cycle Toronto has launched a Charter challenge against the Ontario government over its decision to remove bike lanes on three Toronto roads. They argue that the province’s actions infringe on the rights of cyclists, pedestrians and other road uses by depriving them of life and security of the person – thereby, violating the Charter.
Healthcare
Building on the announcement in October to expand the Learn and Stay grants for undergraduate students to practice family medicine in Ontario, the Ford government has introduced more primary care legislation. The Ontario government implemented the More Convenient Care Act, 2024, which would take the next step in the province’s plan to:
- Deliver on the government’s commitment to support the voluntary mergers of nine Local Public Health Agencies (LPHAs) into four new entities.
- Create a new transparency framework for staffing agencies that operate in hospital, long-term care and community health sectors to disclose administrative mark-up rates to the government through the Health Care Staffing Agency Reporting Act, 2022.
- Enhance hospital governance by working with the sector to define best practices, ensuring providers across the province have access to the tools and resources they need to deliver high-quality care.
- Modernize the provincial electronic health record (EHR) as the next step to provide Ontarians with safe, secure, and direct access to their personal health information online.
- Explore options that would support consistent and quality mental health and addiction services.
- Strengthen the authority of the Chief Medical Officer of Health to promote greater alignment.
The Ontario government has also expanded the role of nurse practitioners and registered nurses. This includes being able to use a defibrillator to someone in cardiac arrest, a cardiac pacemaker for someone to receive care if their heart is beating irregularly, perform an electrocoagulation to help treat skin conditions, and certify death in more circumstances. The expanded roles will begin on July 1, 2025.
Political context
Ontario Progressive Conservatives
Riding high in the polls, the Ford Tories are looking to seize the opportunity before them and call for an early vote. There is almost a perfect storm for doing so. The opposition parties are split in terms of public support. The Tories could ride the wave of unpopularity of the Prime Minister, as a federal election seems less likely in the first quarter of 2025. Taking all of this with the Premier’s strong rhetoric against President-elect Trump’s 25% tariff policy, and the rationale for going early becomes more understandable.
Potential liabilities facing the Ford governments include the ongoing Greenbelt investigation, the fiscal situation of the province, and the uncertain economic fallout of more protectionist policies in the United States. Conservative strategists see these factors as potentially creating greater electoral uncertainty the longer the vote is held off.
Initial media reaction to Ford’s position on Canada-US trade has been generally positive, especially when compared to the federal opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre. Ford’s approach has been emotional and emphatic, emphasizing the strong relationship that Ontario has as the largest trading partner for 17 states, and engaging in a public campaign south of the border to underline the allyship between Ontario, Canada and the United States.
As we head into the recess, look for Ford to continue an aggressive ad campaign boasting about the progress he feels his government has made and highlighting the policy priorities of the government around gridlock, health care, energy, and trade.
Ontario New Democratic Party
Ontario’s New Democrats have slowly been nominating candidates, putting out advertisements to introduce Marit Stiles to voters and raising funds for a potential early election. The party is putting together its election team and will start working on platform in the new year. To date, the party has put out some of their election planks, namely their housing plan. Last month, the party also announced the nomination of former Toronto mayor David Miller as a strategic advisor in charge of putting together the party’s plan for municipalities.
In the new year, the party will be focused on putting forward their vision for the election by focusing on making life more affordable for Ontarians and by making the choices clear about Marit Stiles as leader in contrast to Doug Ford as leader.
To end the fall session, the Ontario NDP has focused on the recent Auditor General report that raised concerns with the Ontario Place redevelopment project. It remains to be seen whether some of the challenges raised in the report continue to be part of the political conversation in the new year.
Ontario Liberal Party
Bonnie Crombie – Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party – released her housing platform. Her plan has three main parts:
- Eliminating the provincial Land Transfer Tax for first-time homebuyers, seniors downsizing, and non-profit home builders.
- Repeal development charges on new middle-class housing and replacing the charges with the Better Communities Fund to ensure the province invests and benefits from sustainable municipal growth.
- Introducing rent control, resolving Landlord-Tenant Board disputes within two months, and establishing the Rental Emergency Support for Tenants (REST) Fund to help vulnerable renters avoid eviction during financial emergencies.
Having recently completed her first year as Leader of the Ontario Liberal Party and with the prospect of an election in early 2025 looming, Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals are focused on candidate recruitment and fundraising. After two election campaigns in 2018 and 2022 that saw her party reduced to single digit seat counts, the Liberals are keenly aware that they must begin winning back support from Ontarians or face possible extinction as a provincial party. The Liberals are also focused on developing policy that will appeal to Ontarians facing an uncertain economic future. At the same time, the governing Conservatives have run attack ads against Ms. Crombie for much of 2024, painting her as being in favour of higher taxes and continuation of a consumer carbon tax, despite her statements to the contrary.
Insights in this piece contributed by Rob Leone, Charles Bird, Mélanie Richer and Nastassia Varela.
