The debate is in the rear-view window and just over a week remains in the Nova Scotia general election campaign. The two latest publicly released surveys continue to show Tim Houston’s PCs in a commanding lead. Abacus (Nov 7-10) shows the PCs at 47, Liberals 25, NDP 23 and Greens at 4. MQO (Nov 3-10) also shows PCs at 47, but with the NDP next at 24, Liberals 20, and Greens at 7.
Regional battlegrounds are Halifax and Industrial Cape Breton. The challenge for both the Liberals and NDP is that these are battlegrounds they share and find themselves as much defending from one another as opposed to breaking out into rural mainland Nova Scotia – something either party would likely need to do in order to win the 28 seats needed for a majority government.
Claudia Chender and the NDP are pushing to make gains from the Liberals in both battleground regions. Their push has included recent help from federal NDP leader Jagmeet Singh, the first and so far only federal party leader to visit and join the provincial campaign. Both PC leader Tim Houston and Liberal leader Zach Churchill have ruled out inviting federal party leaders to assist in their campaigns.
Early voting is well underway. Electors can vote at their district’s returning office any day up until the day before Election Day (November 26).
The debate
The leaders’ debate was hosted by CBC on Thursday, November 14. For ninety minutes, all three party leaders debated issues falling into the categories of healthcare, affordability, climate action, raising a family, and Nova Scotia’s growth. All three major parties have released platforms similarly themed and the debate saw the leaders use their time to promote their own flavour of similar solutions and frame themselves as the only force for action.
Tim Houston defended his record after running in 2021 on fixing healthcare. Both Churchill and Chender pointed to a larger waitlist for family doctors while Houston cited a net gain of 250 doctors and a million new appointment opportunities since 2021. Chender went further to criticize the Houston government’s investments in apps and contracted health tech solutions.
On carbon taxes and pricing, the discussion was laced-in with the federal Liberal government’s carbon tax. Houston not only asserted he was the only consistent and complete opponent to the carbon tax, but that his Liberal opponent would bring in what amounted to a carbon tax under a different name. Houston went so far as to say he was the only provincial leader not beholden to a federal leader and party. This isn’t the first time he’s created space between himself and the Poilievre Conservatives.
In some respects, Liberal leader Zach Churchill staked positions to the right of Tim Houston – expressing concern about the rate of growth of the province’s population and the cost of PC promises like removing the tolls from the Halifax harbour bridges.
On housing, Churchill and Chender zeroed in on rent hikes and proposed measures to regulate rental arrangements and support renters. Houston’s focus was on his government’s housing strategy – described as the first such plan in decades and focused on increasing housing supply and pointing to acceleration of housing starts in recent years.
Discussion of affordability mostly came down to competing proposals for tax relief and tax credits, with the NDP again proposing greater spending and intervention. The education discussion was essentially inverted, with Houston pointing at the education budget choices of previous Liberal and NDP governments and their relationships with the teachers’ union. The Houston PCs spent a lot of time in negotiations and securing deals with the teachers’ union and other public sector unions earlier this year. The climate action and mitigation discussion included a heated exchange on coastline protection – in particular the Chignecto isthmus project and whether the funding should be 100% federally funded. There was a sub-discussion about whether the dispute with the federal government had delayed action on the project, Houston maintaining that engineering and other steps are taking place, his opponents taking the opposite view.
In terms of tone and phrasing, each leader’s style was showcased in the debate. NDP leader Claudia Chender made a very deliberate decision to always refer to Tim Houston by his first name, Churchill choosing to use the more formal “Mr. Houston” when referring to the Premier. For the most part both the NDP and Liberal leaders largely ignored one another. Tim Houston had clearly prepared for the debate, referring to specific claims and promises of his opponents when responding to one or the other. Churchill took a starker more accusatory tone, repeatedly accusing Houston of inconsistency and dishonesty.
Campaign cut and thrust
Liberal and NDP attempts to make an issue out of the snap election call have mostly dissipated by this stage in the campaign. Aside from debates and disagreement about which policies and approaches are best, all three parties are also burning up the airwaves alternatively setting, correcting and defending the record on what has happened on healthcare, housing and affordability.
A few candidate gaffes and campaign missteps have punctuated the campaign so far. NS Liberals are taking legal steps against the campaign of PC candidate Susan Corkum-Greek seeking to have her removed from the ballot for breaches of the Nova Scotia Elections Act for allegedly distributing Tim Hortons gift cards at a local Tim Hortons outlet. In a letter of apology, the PC campaign manager in Lunenburg admitted to buying $51.75 worth of gift cards, each worth $2.07 — the price of a small cup of coffee — to hand out to Tim Hortons patrons. He stressed that the candidate was not aware of his actions. The NS Supreme Court will not hear the case prior to election day on November 26.
Former Liberal Caucus Chair Fred Tilley, who crossed the floor to the PCs just prior to the writ drop also faced scrutiny and criticism after admitting he took voter tracking information from the Liberal database prior to crossing. The Liberal party has filed complaints with Elections Nova Scotia and the RCMP. Tilley maintains he has not used the information since he left, and views the information as the product of his work in the campaign in 2021.
On November 10, the NDP issued a news release announcing that Tammy Jakeman would no longer be the party’s candidate in Eastern Passage. The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs issued a news release on November 9 which included pictures of two posts by Jakeman. One post, from November 2023, responds to a World Children’s Day post from the Auschwitz Memorial by saying that children in Gaza will die because “Israel is obsessed with killing all Hamas, regardless of the human expenses.” In another, also from 2023, the same Jakeman account retweets a post that said, “Apartheid Israel is at its happiest when terrorizing Palestinians.”
Seats to watch
Glace Bay-Dominion
PC MLA John White is the incumbent in this district but faces serious challenges from both the Liberals and NDP. All three parties had strong results in 2021, with the PCs winning a plurality despite an overall loss in total votes as compared to the 2017 election.
Cape Breton Centre – Whitney Pier
A battleground between NDP incumbent Kendra Coombes and Liberal challenger Jolene Magliaro. Industrial Cape Breton has strong NDP and Liberal roots. In the last provincial election, only two points separated their candidates in the final result.
Fairview-Clayton Park
Liberal incumbent Patricia Arab has held the seat since 2013 when it was created from pieces of the former districts of Halifax Fairview, Halifax Clayton Park and Halifax Chebucto. However, in 2021, her margin of victory shrunk to 1.4 percentage points. The NDP have traditionally done well in the area, and it would be a seat that they could take back if their support levels eclipse the Liberals.
Hants East
By the narrowest of margins (1 percentage point), PC John A. MacDonald took the district in 2021. However, for most of the last 30 years this district has been represented by Liberals and NDP. If the Liberals are to make any gains on election night, this would be one they would hope to turn red.
Hants West
The PCs have a stronger history in Hants West, however there may now be a larger Liberal organization in the district. Former MLA Chuck Porter was first elected there as a Progressive Conservative then left the PC caucus first to sit as an independent and later to join the Liberal party where he ran and was re-elected (this time as a Liberal) in 2017. While he did not run again in 2021, the Liberals showed considerable strength, losing to PC Melissa Sheehy-Richard by a margin of just 1.5%. The path to 28 seats for the Liberals would have to include districts like this one in rural mainland Nova Scotia.
For more insights on the Nova Scotia election, connect with Senior Consultant Liam O’Brien.
