In a dramatic conclusion to the 2024 British Columbia provincial election, no party secured a clear majority, leaving the province in political uncertainty. As of last night’s count, the BC NDP led or was elected in 46 seats, while the BC Conservatives held 45, and the BC Greens led or were elected in two.
The seat count could still shift as final results are confirmed in the coming days. With neither the BC NDP nor the Conservatives reaching the 47 seats needed for a majority, the BC Green Party may hold the balance of power, despite the fact their leader, Sonia Furstenau, lost her seat in the legislature and may step down from that role. This election is drawing comparisons to 2017, when the BC NDP and Greens took weeks to negotiate a confidence and supply agreement, eventually forming a government more than two months after the election.
As the final counts are still being tallied, several ridings remain extremely close, with razor-thin margins. Recounts are expected in key ridings like Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Surrey City Centre, and Surrey-Guildford, where victories could shift by just a handful of votes. With such tight races, the final distribution of seats could swing either way, potentially leading to a Conservative or NDP-led majority once the recounts and mail-in votes are fully accounted for.
No matter what, the influx of new legislators and shifting political dynamics promises to reshape governance in British Columbia, setting the stage for potentially significant changes in how policies are prioritized, debated and decisions are made.
What we know
As of today, it is projected that the next legislative session will feature 58 new MLAs. Based on the current results, 37 new Conservative MLAs will join the eight incumbents who previously crossed the floor from BC United. Whether the Conservatives form a government or remain in opposition, the party will enter the legislature with a large and energized caucus. On election night, Conservative leader John Rustad delivered a fiery speech, pledging to challenge the stability of any NDP government and to force another election if given the opportunity.
The unprecedented rise of the BC Conservatives marks one of the most significant shifts in the province’s political landscape in decades. Under Rustad’s leadership, the party surged from near political obscurity to a serious contender for government. The Conservatives capitalized on public dissatisfaction with issues such as affordability and public safety, resonating with voters in key regions, including Surrey, where they won several ridings that had previously been NDP strongholds.
The BC Conservative caucus includes 8 former BC United MLAs, including two who have held cabinet positions in the past: leader John Rustad, and Theresa Wat. The BC Conservative roster includes new MLAs that made a mark during the election, including Gavin Dew (Kelowna-Mission), Amelia Boultbee (Penticton-Summerland), and Kiel Giddens (Prince George-Mackenzie).
Most of the successful candidates in this election have been elected for the first time, and it will take time for them to get situated in their new jobs, whether in government or opposition. All former BC Conservative and BC United candidates who ran as independents lost.
David Eby’s election night speech conveyed both resolve and a sense of reflection. He acknowledged the tight race, highlighting that every vote mattered. Despite the uncertainty of the results, Eby emphasized his commitment to continuing the fight for progressive values, and suggested his party is best positioned to collaborate with the BC Greens. He pledged to unite British Columbians, promising to address concerns like affordability and public safety. While recognizing the challenges ahead, Eby projected optimism, aiming to improve on past efforts and stay on as premier, reflecting a tone of determination amidst a closely contested election.
The BC NDP caucus is significantly reshaped with three key ministers—Nathan Cullen (Water, Land and Natural Resource Stewardship), Pam Alexis (Agriculture), and Rachna Singh (Education)—defeated, along with two Ministers of State and several Parliamentary Secretaries. Additionally, Christine Boyle, a sitting Vancouver city councillor, was elected as a BC NDP MLA, which will trigger a by-election for her council seat.
Elections BC has indicated that the final count, including vote-by-mail ballots, will be completed by October 26th. Any ridings where the margin of victory is fewer than 100 votes (or 1/500th of total votes cast) will automatically trigger a recount, which may further delay the final outcome.
There are several ridings that hold potential for a recount. Those ridings include:
- Juan de Fuca-Malahat: margin – 23 votes – NDP lead
- Surrey City Centre: margin – 96 votes – NDP lead
- Surrey-Guildford: margin – 102 votes – Conservative lead
- Kelowna Centre: margin – 146 votes – Conservative lead
- Courtenay-Comox: margin – 231 votes – Conservative lead
- Coquitlam-Burke Mountain: margin – 268 votes – NDP lead
Current BC NDP Caucus highlights
27 former BC NDP Caucus Members were re-elected:
- Anne Kang, Burnaby Centre (Minister, Municipal Affairs)
- Raj Chouhan, Burnaby-New Westminster (Speaker of the House)
- Janet Routledge, Burnaby North (PS Labour)
- Ravi Kahlon, Delta North (Housing)
- Brittny Anderson, Kootenay Central (PS Tourism)
- Ravi Parmar, Langford-Highlands (PS International Credentials)
- Bowinn Ma, North Vancouver-Lonsdale (Minister, Emergency Management and Climate Readiness)
- Lisa Beare, Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows (Minister, Post-Secondary Education and Future Skills)
- Josie Osborne, Mid Island-Pacific Rim (Minister, Energy, Mines and Low-Carbon Innovation)
- Sheila Malcolmson, Nanaimo-Gabriola Island (Minister, Social Development and Poverty Reduction)
- Jennifer Whiteside, New Westminster-Coquitlam (Minister, Mental Health and Addictions)
- Mike Farnworth, Port Coquitlam (Minister, Public Safety and Solicitor General)
- Rick Glumac, Port Moody-Coquitlam (Premier’s Liaison for the Pacific Northwest)
- Lana Popham, Saanich South (Minister, Tourism, Arts, Culture and Sport)
- Jagrup Brar, Surrey-Fleetwood (Minister of State, Trade)
- David Eby, Vancouver-Point Grey (Premier)
- Niki Sharma, Vancouver-Hastings (Attorney General)
- Mable Elmore, Vancouver-Kensington (PS Anti Racism Initiatives)
- George Chow, Vancouver-Fraserview (Minister, Citizen Services)
- Brenda Bailey, Vancouver-Granville (Minister, Jobs, Economic Development and Innovation)
- Adrian Dix, Vancouver-Renfrew (Minister, Health)
- Joan Phillip, Vancouver-Strathcona
- Spencer Chandra Herbert
- Harwinder Sandhu, Vernon-Lumby (PS, Seniors Services and Long-Term Care)
- Grace Lore, Victoria Beacon Hill (Minister, Children and Family Development)
- Kelly Greene, Richmond Steveston (PS Fisheries and Aquaculture)
- Susie Chant, North Vancouver-Seymour (PS Accessibility)
9 former BC NDP Cabinet Members were defeated:
- Nathan Cullen, Bulkley Valley-Stikine (Minister, Water, Land and Resource Stewardship)
- Pam Alexis, Abbotsford-Mission (Agriculture)
- Roly Russell, Boundary-Similkameen (PS Rural Development)
- Dan Coulter, Chilliwack North (Minister of State, Infrastructure and Transit)
- Kelli Paddon, Chilliwack-Cultus Lake (PS Gender Equity)
- Megan Dykeman, Langley-Walnut Grove (PS Community Development and Non-Profits)
- Andrew Mercier, Langley-Willowbrook (Minister of State, Sustainable Forestry Innovation)
- Aman Singh, Richmond-Queensborough (PS Environment)
- Bob D’Eith, Maple Ridge East (PS Arts and Film)
19 new BCNDP MLAs were elected or are leading:
- Reah Arora, Burnaby East
- Paul Choi, Burnaby South-Metrotown
- Jodie Wickens, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain (Subject to flip – 268 vote lead)
- Jennifer Blatherwick, Coquitlam-Maillardville
- Debra Toporowski, Cowichan Valley
- Darlene Rotchford, Esquimalt-Colwood
- Dana Lajeunesse (Subject to flip – 23 vote lead)
- Steve Morissette, Kootenay-Monashee
- Stephanie Higginson, Ladysmith-Oceanside
- George Anderson, Nanaimo-Lantzville
- Tamara Davidson, North Coast-Haida Gwaii
- Diana Gibson, Oak Bay-Gordon Head
- Randene Neill, Powell River-Sunshine Coast
- Amna Shah, Surrey City Centre (Subject to flip – 96 vote lead)
- Jessie Sunner, Surrey-Newtown
- Sunita Dhir, Vancouver-Langara (Subject to flip – 288 vote lead)
- Christine Boyle, Vancouver Little Mountain
- Terry Yung, Vancouver-Yaletown
- Nina Krieger, Victoria-Swan Lake
Current BC Conservative Caucus highlights
8 incumbent BC Conservatives won their seats after switching from the BC United Party:
- John Rustad – Nechako Lakes, Leader of the BC Conservatives
- Bruce Banman – Abbotsford South
- Elenore Sturko – Surrey South
- Lorne Doerkson – Cariboo-Chilcotin
- Trevor Halford – Surrey White Rock
- Teresa Wat – Richmond North Centre
- Peter Milobar – Kamloops Centre
- Ian Paton – Delta South
37 BC Conservative MLAs were elected or leading who will be serving for the first time:
- Korky Neufeld, Abbotsford West
- Reann Gasper, Abbotsford-Mission
- Donegal Wilson, Boundary-Similkameen
- Sharon Hartwell, Bulkley Valley-Stikine
- Heather Maahs, Chilliwack North
- A’aliya Warbus, Chilliwack-Cultus Lake
- Scott McInnis – Columbia River-Revelstoke
- Brennan Day, Courtenay-Comox(Subject to flip – 231 vote lead)
- Tony Luck, Fraser-Nicola
- Ward Stamer, Kamloops-North Thompson
- Kristina Loewen, Kelowna Centre (Subject to flip – 148 vote lead)
- Tara Armstrong, Kelowna-Lake Country-Coldstream
- Gavin Dew, Kelowna-Mission
- Pete Davis, Kootenay-Rockies
- Harman Bhangu, Langley-Abbotsford
- Misty Van Popta, Langley-Walnut Grove
- Jody Toor, Langley-Willowbrook
- Lawrence Mok, Maple Ridge East (Subject to flip – 326 vote lead)
- Anna Kindy, North Island
- Jordan Kealy, Peace River North
- Larry Neufeld, Peace River South
- Amelia Boultbee, Penticton-Summerland
- Kiel Giddens, Prince George-McKenzie
- Sheldon Clare, Prince George-North Cariboo
- Rosalyn Bird – Prince George-Valemount
- Hon Chan, Richmond Centre
- Steve Kooner, Richmond-Queensborough
- David Williams, Salmon Arm-Shuswap
- Claire Rattée, Skeena
- Mandeep Dhaliwal, Surrey North
- Brent Chapman, Surrey South
- Honveer Singh Randhawa, Surrey-Guildford(Subject to flip – 102 vote lead)
- Bryan Tepper, Surrey-Panorama(Subject to flip – 351 vote lead)
- Linda Hepner, Surrey-Serpentine River
- Dallas Brodie, Vancouver Quilchena
- Macklin McCall, West Kelowna-Peachland
- Lynne Block, West Vancouver-Capilano
New BC Green MLAs
- Rob Botterell, Saanich North and the Islands
- Jeremy Valeriote, West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Earnscliffe’s BC team will continue our background discussions with the relevant players and provide regular updates on developments as they unfold.
