The old adage “change is the only constant in life” is an understatement for those following B.C. politics in the dog days of summer and early fall. Our recent Insights piece set the table for the state of play of the B.C. election. Since then, everything has been knocked off the proverbial table.
Kevin Falcon suspends BC United campaign, endorses BC Conservatives
On August 28th Kevin Falcon announced that the BC United party was suspending their campaign and encouraged his supporters to unite behind BC Conservative leader John Rustad to defeat the BCNDP. Falcon’s announcement marked a seismic shift in the B.C. political landscape with mixed reactions.
Prior to Falcon’s departure, poll aggregator 338Canada had the BCNDP leading the BC Conservatives 40% to 38% in estimates of the vote total, it is now a statistical tie with both parties projected to receive 44% of the vote. BC Green party support has consistently hovered between 10 and 11%. In our first past-the-post electoral system, it remains uncertain whether the BC Greens will secure a single seat. 338 Canada projects the BCNDP to win 49 seats to the BC Conservatives’ 43 seats. 47 seats are required for a majority government. The same data holds the BCNDP have a 64% chance of forming government while the BC Conservatives have a 31% chance of winning. It’s worth noting that in early May this same modelling had the odds of a BC Conservative victory at less than one percent.
A growing list of Independent candidates
Five incumbent BC United MLAs: Tom Shypitka – Kootney-Rockies, Dan Davies – Peace River North, Mike Bernier – Peace River South, Coralee Oakes – Prince George – North Cariboo and Karin Kirkpatrick – West Vancouver – Capilano announcing they will be running in their ridings as independent candidates. Kirkpatrick previously announced her retirement from politics. In addition, first time BC United candidates Jackie Lee – Richmond Steveston, Karen Long – Langley-Abbotsford, Meiling Chia – Burnaby South-Metrotown, Wendy Yuan – Richmond Centre, Tracy St. Claire – Penticton-Summerland and Michael Humer – Kelowna-Centre are also running as independents.
In Ladysmith–Oceanside, former NDP MLA Adam Walker is also running after serving for a year as an Independent for Parksville-Qualicum following his ejection from the government caucus.
Each of the incumbent BC United MLAs won their seats in the 2020 provincial election by wide margins, though the BC Conservatives have very strong poll numbers in the regions they represent. Before the suspension of the BC United campaign, an Abacus Data poll found the Conservatives led in the Interior and North by 11 points.
It remains to be seen to what degree these independent candidates will split the vote, or whether they win any seats. Even if just one independent candidate wins a seat, they could become a ‘king-maker’ in a close election. September 28th is Elections BC’s deadline to declare candidacy, and there may be more independents announced in the coming week.
Carbon tax concerns no longer baloney
After previously standing firm on B.C.’s carbon tax, Eby announced his intention to end the consumer carbon tax if the federal government removes its backstop. Until last week Eby bristled at Conservative calls to “axe the tax” but has pivoted to address affordability concerns. In a statement, Eby said “a series of decisions in Ottawa have politicized it and undermined support across the country” and re-iterated his commitment to addressing the climate crisis and making big polluters pay. Nonetheless, his is a seismic shift in policy after Premier Eby had rejected calls from Federal Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to repeal a tax on carbon as a “baloney factory” campaign tactic.
Involuntary Care
On September 15th, Premier Eby announced secure care facilities to support individuals with severe mental illness, brain injuries, and addiction. These facilities will provide involuntary care under the Mental Health Act. The first secure care site will open at Alouette Correctional Centre in Maple Ridge, while a designated mental-health unit will be created at the Surrey Pretrial Services Centre. At the announcement Eby said: “We’re going to respond to people struggling like any family member would. We are taking action to get them the care they need to keep them safe, and in doing so, keep our communities safe, too.”
BC Conservatives propose major reforms to the forestry sector
On September 14th, the Conservative Party released its campaign platform for the forestry sector. The platform highlights the closure of 9 major sawmills in the last 18 months and makes several key commitments to revitalize the industry. The most notable part of the platform is a replacement of B.C.’s stumpage system which would see the creation of a “value-added end product tax”. The new system would award input credits for higher value products and better utilization of fibre and is intended to incentivize innovation and efficiency. The Conservative platform did not include proposals on the management of old growth, First Nations involvement and revenue sharing, or the softwood lumber dispute with the United States.
Municipalities highlight financial pressures at annual convention
At their convention this week, the Union of B.C. Municipalities (UBCM) outlined key priorities for the upcoming provincial election, emphasizing the financial pressures faced by local governments. UBCM president Trish Mandewo highlighted a “trifecta of cost pressures” stemming from gaps in provincial services, new housing mandates, and increased responsibilities for emergency management amid rising flood and fire risks. In a report titled “Stretched to the Limit“, UBCM members detail the urgent need for additional funding and support from the next provincial government. All major B.C. party leaders addressed the UBCM convention. Notably, John Rustad did not take questions from the floor while both Furstenau and Eby did.
Several local government leaders have secured nominations for the BCNDP, BC Conservatives and Green Party, so provincial election dynamics came alive in conversations throughout the week. BCNDP candidates are advocating for continuing on the path of reconciliation, bold housing reform and investments amidst deficit spending while BC Conservatives are urging fiscal prudence, applying guiderails on co-governance with first nations and are pushing for a tougher approach toward repeat criminal offenders.
The ballot box issue is up in the air
Last month we picked affordability as the ballot box issue, and this continues to be primary focus for David Eby. The BCNDP campaign has leaned into the affordability question and launched a website that highlights their estimate of the cost of John Rustad government. On affordability Rustad has promised lower gas prices, fiscal responsibility and ending the ICBC monopoly.
However, John Rustad and the BC Conservatives are leaning into the issue of public safety, street disorder and the toxic drug crisis. In social media ads, the BC Conservatives accuse the BCNDP of providing free crack pipes and providing lessons on how to snort cocaine. We noted at the top that Premier Eby announced the introduction of involuntary care facilities but expect to see the BC Conservatives continue to link the toxic drug crisis and street disorder to the BCNDP government.
Where do things stand?
Premier Eby and the BCNDP have been labelled by their opponents and several members of the media as “flip-floppers” following his policy reversals on the carbon tax and involuntary care. David Eby for his part took aim at John Rustad in his address at the Union of BC Municipalities Convention targeting his divisive rhetoric on the Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous People Act (DRIPA) suggesting it poses a threat to private property rights. John Rustad fired back in his address on Friday morning by re-stating his position that indigenous rights and title constitutes an infringement on the rights on non-indigenous people.
Expect a lively and close election race. Much can happen in the campaign which will end October 19, Election Day. And monitor this space for further updates and analysis.
