Week-one in the books
The first week on the campaign trail since Premier David Eby’s snap election call last Tuesday has already seen a shift in British Columbia’s political landscape. The BC NDP is asking voters for a mandate to confront economic uncertainty and oppose Donald Trump, but the immediate pressure of an election has helped reunite much of his once-fractured opposition. The centre-right appears to be putting aside their differences and rallying under new Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson. The contest now turns on two competing questions: can the BC NDP persuade voters the current government offers the safest path through difficult times, or can Lorne Doerkson convince them the BC Conservatives and their vision of change are a credible government-in-waiting worth voting for?
The week in review
Conservatives reunite
Seven former BC Conservative MLAs returned to the Conservatives on September 22, strengthening Lorne Doerkson’s team and reducing the prospect of competing campaigns among former colleagues. However, MLA Elenore Sturko did not return to the Conservatives and became the new leader of CentreBC. She was joined by former Green Party leader Andrew Weaver who announced on September 23 he’s running as their candidate in Oak Bay–Gordon Head. CentreBC’s immediate challenge is to convert dissatisfaction with both major parties into support in specific ridings while battling “vote split” accusations from both the NDP and Conservatives.
NDP open with health care policy
Eby’s first major policy announcement was a pledge to triple B.C.’s targeted U.S. health worker recruitment campaign, expand its reach, and offer incentives to Canadian health professionals returning home. The proposal is an attempt to link the NDP’s Trump narrative to access to care as they plan to explicitly target Republican states. Its political value will depend on whether voters see a credible route from recruitment announcements to more reliable local services and access to family doctors.
Domestic procurement becomes an election commitment
On September 24, Eby proposed new procurement rules favouring B.C. and Canadian materials for public projects where suppliers can meet price and delivery requirements. The plan would cover ministries, Crown agencies, and health authorities, with municipalities encouraged to follow suit. Politically, it gave the NDP a concrete way to connect its trade-war narrative to a positive jobs and B.C. business message.
Taxes make for the first major contrast
On September 25, the NDP proposed raising speculation and vacancy tax rates by one percentage point and introducing a tax on completed condos left unsold and empty for more than a year, starting at two per cent. On September 27, Doerkson pledged that a Conservative government would introduce no new taxes and would not raise taxes. The contrast sets up a debate over whether affordability is best advanced through stronger intervention or greater restraint on taxation.
Exports and energy take centre stage
On September 28, Premier Eby made an announcement from the Port of Prince Rupert, promising to double critical mineral exports within five years. The same day, Doerkson released the Conservatives’ nine-page plan to “Make B.C. an Energy Superpower” notably by doubling LNG production by 2032 and tripling it by 2035. On September 29, LNG Canada’s partners approved the project’s Phase 2 expansion, which will double the Kitimat facility’s production capacity. The timing is favourable for Eby’s argument that B.C.’s major project and trade-diversification strategy is producing tangible investment, but it also validates the Conservatives’ decision to put LNG expansion at the centre of their economic platform yesterday.
Cutting through the noise
- The most consequential development of the opening week was the speed with which an election, called amidst opposition turmoil, helped bring much of that divided opposition back together. Most former BC Conservative MLAs returned to the party within hours of the election announcement. This immediately changed the competitive landscape before the campaigns had even gotten off the ground.
- Premier Eby’s stated case for calling an early election was that B.C. needs a fresh mandate to respond to an exceptional external threat posed by Donald Trump. The political opportunity was more obvious: the centre-right was divided between Conservatives, CentreBC, and OneBC, all while the Official Opposition was preoccupied with Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership struggles, offering the NDP a chance to make stability the defining choice. However, the abrupt resignation of Findlay, coupled with the appointment of Doerkson as leader changed the situation.
- For politicians who had recently left the Conservatives, the prospect of facing voters made setting aside differences more urgent. The 2024 election demonstrated that even popular incumbents could not get re-elected without a party banner to run under. Reunification gives Doerkson a stronger team and an opportunity to present himself as someone who can build bridges and resolve conflict. It also reduces an obvious electoral vulnerability: rival candidates on the right splitting the vote and allowing the NDP to win ridings they aren’t usually competitive in. However, MLAs banding together does not establish that their disagreements have disappeared, or that voters will trust them to govern together. Regardless, this campaign will be a key test of whether this newly re-unified caucus can maintain cohesion and a common goal of defeating the NDP.
- The NDP therefore retains an opening. Angus Reid’s September 22–24 survey found that 56 per cent of British Columbians believed the Conservatives were not ready to govern, even as the party led on voting intention. The same survey also found that 62 per cent thought an election was premature. Taken together, those findings suggest an electorate that is both frustrated with the government as well as uneasy about promoting the opposition.
- The strategic challenge for both major parties is to move beyond the circumstances of the election. Eby needs to connect his message to proof points that show tangible improvements in health care, housing, and affordability under the NDP. Doerkson needs to support his promise of change by continuing to offer credible policies, fiscal discipline, and a team of candidates that offer legitimacy in the eyes of voters and paint over the cracks of a fractured right.
- The next test is whether the early campaign settles into a two-party contest or leaves meaningful room for alternatives. Sturko and Weaver give CentreBC popular and recognizable voices, but the two of them will require party infrastructure to make a larger impact on the provincial scene. OneBC continues to nominate candidates at a pace faster than the other smaller parties but it remains to be seen if they will be a tempting option for voters who believe the Conservatives have compromised too much or if they can support a Conservative party seeking to rebuild a broader coalition with a shot at government.
- The questions to ask throughout the rest of the election will be: As nominations close and platforms develop, can Conservative cohesion survive scrutiny? Can the NDP shift attention from why it called the election to what it would deliver?
Polling
- The latest provincewide surveys suggest a close race, with neither major party holding a consistent lead. Léger’s September 30 release (conducted September 24–28) puts the Conservatives at 39 per cent, the NDP at 36 per cent, the Greens at 13 per cent, and OneBC and CentreBC at five per cent each. Innovative Research’s survey, published September 29 (conducted September 25–28) has the NDP ahead at 41 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 39 per cent, Greens at 11 per cent, OneBC at four per cent and CentreBC at three per cent. Liaison Strategies’ September 29 release (conducted September 26–27) shows the Conservatives at 40 per cent, the NDP at 39 per cent, Greens at 11 per cent, CentreBC at four per cent and OneBC at three per cent. That particular poll represented a four-point Conservative increase and a two-point NDP decline from Liaison’s previous survey. These recent polls all show smaller gaps than Angus Reid’s September 22–24 survey which placed the Conservatives at 43 per cent and the NDP at 35 per cent. The tight numbers and rapidly changing political landscape of the last two weeks means the situation is too fluid to call.
Looking ahead
Municipal crossover?
We’ll be watching for how municipal campaigns across the province intersect with the provincial election. The overlap with municipal elections could affect campaign visibility, volunteer capacity, and voter attention. Provincial advance voting runs October 16–21, straddling municipal election day on October 17. Local concerns about development, infrastructure, and public safety could cut across the provincial parties’ preferred messages.
Full slates?
We’ll be watching to see which parties can field a full slate of candidates by the time nominations close on October 3. That deadline will expose gaps in party coverage and will be the first proper test of organizing capacity, especially for smaller parties like CentreBC and OneBC.Currently, both the NDP and Conservatives have officially announced more than 60 candidates each, OneBC has nominated 13, BC Greens have declared 11, and CentreBC has put forward 10.
Narrative reset?
We’ll be watching to see if David Eby begins to pivot away from the heavy focus on Donald Trump after signs that a similar campaign narrative has failed to resonate with Quebec voters in their ongoing election scheduled for October 5. Pollster David Coletto has said that provincial voters may have a harder time connecting Trump to provincial policy compared to federal policy.