The second week on the campaign trail since Premier David Eby’s snap election call has seen messaging begin to shift, candidate appoints take off, and campaigns gain momentum. David Eby has begun to shift away from his focus on Donald Trump and US-trade conflict being the reason behind his calling this election. The campaign is moving beyond the circumstances of the snap election and toward a more substantive contest over economic growth, affordability, and public services. Both major parties are arguing that they can deliver investment and jobs but their approaches to paying for government are becoming more distinct: David Eby is proposing higher taxes on top earners to improve health care, while Lorne Doerkson is promising to protect services without raising taxes. Both major party leaders have been on the campaign trail stopping in communities to connect with local voters, as well as announce ideas and policies they hope to implement if elected Premier. So far, the two leaders have stuck to communities with traditionally stronger support for their respective parties with Doerkson covering more rural communities and Eby focusing more on urban centres. Several polls have been released appearing to show a narrowing race between the NDP and Conservatives, with the Conservatives now holding a slight lead. Neither major party has released its full platform yet, so the question becomes whether each party’s vision for the future and critique of the other party will be enough to maintain the momentum needed to win on election day.
The ballots are set. Following the October 3 nomination deadline, ElectionsBC confirmed that the Conservatives will contest all 93 ridings, the NDP 92, the Greens 73, CentreBC 35, and OneBC 33. The NDP’s missing candidate is in Peace River North. Notably, the BC Greens nominated more candidates than in the previous election despite the pressure of a snap election timeline. CentreBC and OneBC now face the difficult task of concentrating their resources where they can be competitive, while the two major parties can now assess where competing candidates could split the vote and divide potential support.
Affordability promises at gas pumps and grocery aisles. On October 1, Eby proposed a temporary 10-cent-per-litre reduction in provincial fuel taxes and a mechanism to regulate pump prices. The following day, he proposed limits on retail profit margins for selected grocery staples. His list of promises also included stopping property controls so smaller or independent grocery stores can open, banning anti-competitive real estate deals, ending hidden pricing schemes and predatory surveillance pricing, and providing supports for smaller grocery stores. The announcements bring the NDP’s campaign focus to everyday household costs but also invite scrutiny of implementation and the government’s unfulfilled 2024 grocery-rebate promise.
Conservatives pledge wildfire prevention and recovery support. October 2, Doerkson announced from Summerland in fire-affected areas that a Conservative government would implement the Protect Communities from Wildfire Action Plan. This plan would purchase water bombers, conduct off season fuel clearing, and speed up prescribed burns. Doerkson highlighted how the prescribed burn process is a heavily regulated and lengthy permitting process which needs to change so communities can get to work quickly to clear dangerous fuels without lowering safety standards. The plan also emphasized investing in early detection and prevention technologies through a dedicated fund.
Parties trade blows over candidate views and attack ads. While on a campaign stop in Comox, Eby called out Conservative leader Lorne Doerksen for appointing candidates with “extreme views.” Speaking to media, Eby singled out two candidates: Heather Maahs for her views on the LGBTQ+ community and Anna Kindy for her views on COVID vaccines. Meanwhile the Conservatives criticized a recent NDP attack ad they claimed had “multiple falsehoods” about the Conservatives wanting to cut healthcare. In a statement, the Conservatives countered this claim citing that Doerkson has promised on record multiple times that he will not cut healthcare.
Eby asks the wealthy to pay more for senior care. On October 5, David Eby announced a healthcare plan in which his party would give expanded home support and free shingles vaccines to seniors through an increased tax on the wealthy. Speaking in Victoria, Eby committed to bringing more than 500 health-care workers to B.C. He also committed to improving long term care facilities by bringing in more nurse practitioners and improved pharmacy services. He also promised to build more long-term care beds faster under the BC-Canada Prosperity Agreement and fairer wages for care workers in order to bring 5,000 care-home workers.
Conservatives press for answers on secret vehicle tax. The BC Conservatives are seeking to make a reported potential $100–$150 annual vehicle levy a campaign issue, arguing the NDP has been considering the measure to address TransLink’s structural funding challenges. The party is framing the proposal as another example of the Eby government making life more expensive for British Columbians and is calling on the NDP to disclose whether it intends to introduce the levy following the election. The Conservatives’ messaging comes as they continue to focus their campaign on affordability and attacking the NDP’s record on taxes and household costs.
Resource development becomes common ground
The most consequential development of the past week was the emergence of a shared emphasis on resource development, even as the two major parties became more divided over taxation and public services. LNG Canada’s expansion and the Pacific Link announcement have given the NDP some much-needed credibility on the file and complicated the Conservatives’ efforts to position themselves as the only option for jobs, investment, and economic growth.
While these major projects reflect years of work across governments, companies, and communities, the timing is valuable for Eby. His opening argument for an early election rested heavily on economic uncertainty and the threat posed by Donald Trump’s trade war. A major investment decision gives the NDP something tangible to connect to that message: greater export capacity, access to overseas markets, and employment growth. The Conservatives have welcomed these projects while arguing that B.C. needs faster approvals and a more attractive investment environment after years of NDP mismanagement of the resource sector. The two major parties being on similar pages does however open up the NDP’s left flank to the BC Greens, who have become the home for voters who prioritize the environment over growing the natural resource sector.
Affordability becomes the electoral test
The political beneficiary of these announcements may initially be Eby, as they strengthen his economic record, but their electoral value will depend on whether voters connect progress on major projects to their own circumstances. Project announcements offer a longer-term answer in growing the economy and responding to trade uncertainty, but the cost of living, health care access, and the housing crisis remain leading concerns among voters.
This is why the NDP have pivoted in recent days to focus on grocery costs, fuel prices, and increasing taxes on top earners. Eby is combining an investment message with a more interventionist approach to household costs and a more populist “class warfare” narrative on taxing wealthy earners. Meanwhile, Doerkson is offering a different message: greater economic growth, no tax increases, and better public services.
Both leaders face questions on delivery
Eby must explain why another mandate would produce affordability improvements that voters have not yet experienced after nearly a decade of NDP government while Doerkson must demonstrate how Conservatives intend to reduce the deficit and make life better for British Columbians without raising taxes or cutting frontline services as promised. Expect both Eby and Doerkson to highlight the need for such explanations on the campaign trail in the coming days and face-to-face at the October 14 Leaders’ Debate.
The latest polling gives the Conservatives an advantage, although the size of that lead varies. Angus Reid’s October 5 survey (conducted October 1–3) puts the Conservatives at 48% and the NDP at 43% among decided and leaning voters, narrowing the Conservative lead from eight points in its previous survey to five. It also finds firmer Conservative support: 65% of their supporters describe themselves as very certain of their choice, compared with 44% of NDP supporters.
On October 6, Mainstreet released a poll showing the BC Conservatives with a nearly eight-point lead over the NDP among decided and leaning voters, at 44.7% to 37.2%, with the Greens at 11.2%. The poll also found significant dissatisfaction with the snap election call, with 59.3% of respondents disapproving and just 29.4% approving.
46% of British Columbians overall now say they are very certain of their vote, up from 35% in late September.
Ipsos, released October 1 (conducted September 25–29) has the Conservatives at 42% and the NDP at 40%. Those findings follow late-September results from Léger which showed a 39–36 Conservative lead, Liaison showing a 40–39 Conservative lead, and Innovative Research showing a 41–39 NDP lead.
Will the debate shake things up? Eby, Doerkson, and Lowan will debate on October 14, from 6:15 to 8 p.m. in the only televised leaders’ debate of the campaign. For Doerkson, the encounter offers an opportunity to introduce himself to British Columbians and establish his credibility to govern before a broad audience. Eby will need to defend his record while making the case for another mandate. Lowan’s opportunity is to distinguish the Greens and pushback on vote splitting narratives pushed by the NDP to shore up progressive voters in the face of a Conservative party ahead in the polls.
Will we see costed platforms? We’ll be watching for detailed explanations of how tax changes, spending commitments, and economic-growth assumptions fit together. The Conservatives face pressure to reconcile their tax pledge with new investments and deficit reduction. The NDP faces questions about delivery and whether its proposed additional revenue can meet the expectations it is creating. So far, no party has released a platform, nor made commitments to release a fully-costed platform.
How will the smaller parties impact local races? Despite not featuring in the debate, OneBC and CentreBC are running more than 30 candidates each and they will have impacts in the ridings they contest. Provincewide polling cannot fully capture the importance of recognizable local candidates and strong campaigning on the ground. With nominations now settled, attention should turn to where the presence of smaller parties on the ballot could alter a close NDP–Conservative race.