B.C.’s provincial election campaign has entered its third week since Premier David Eby’s announcement on September 22. The campaign now enters its decisive stretch with growing pressure on both major parties to demonstrate they deserve voters’ trust. Weaker employment numbers have added urgency to the economic debate, and campaign controversies now plague both major parties. With the televised leaders’ debate on October 14 and advance voting beginning October 16, the contest increasingly turns on whether dissatisfaction with the NDP will translate into votes for the alternative.
October 17 will mark the final day of voting in British Columbia’s municipal elections, determining the next mayors and councillors across the province. Several municipalities will have a new mayor for the first time in decades. The election has seen record-breaking early voter turnout numbers, though it remains to be seen whether this heightened engagement will benefit incumbents seeking re-election or create opportunities for challengers. With municipal campaigns wrapping up, attention is expected to shift toward the provincial election, with an anticipated increase in campaign announcements, signage, and advertising in the days that follow.
Earnscliffe will be releasing a long and short form review of the municipal election results.
Affordability promises at gas pumps and grocery aisles. On October 1, Eby proposed a temporary 10-cent-per-litre reduction in provincial fuel taxes and a mechanism to regulate pump prices. The following day, he proposed limits on retail profit margins for selected grocery staples. His list of promises also included stopping property controls so smaller or independent grocery stores can open, banning anti-competitive real estate deals, ending hidden pricing schemes and predatory surveillance pricing, and providing supports for smaller grocery stores. The announcements bring the NDP’s campaign focus to everyday household costs but also invite scrutiny of implementation and the government’s unfulfilled 2024 grocery-rebate promise.
Conservatives pledge wildfire prevention and recovery support. October 2, Doerkson announced from Summerland in fire-affected areas that a Conservative government would implement the Protect Communities from Wildfire Action Plan. This plan would purchase water bombers, conduct off season fuel clearing, and speed up prescribed burns. Doerkson highlighted how the prescribed burn process is a heavily regulated and lengthy permitting process which needs to change so communities can get to work quickly to clear dangerous fuels without lowering safety standards. The plan also emphasized investing in early detection and prevention technologies through a dedicated fund.
Parties trade blows over candidate views and attack ads. While on a campaign stop in Comox, Eby called out Conservative leader Lorne Doerksen for appointing candidates with “extreme views.” Speaking to media, Eby singled out two candidates: Heather Maahs for her views on the LGBTQ+ community and Anna Kindy for her views on COVID vaccines. Meanwhile the Conservatives criticized a recent NDP attack ad they claimed had “multiple falsehoods” about the Conservatives wanting to cut healthcare. In a statement, the Conservatives countered this claim citing that Doerkson has promised on record multiple times that he will not cut healthcare.
Eby asks the wealthy to pay more for senior care. On October 5, David Eby announced a healthcare plan in which his party would give expanded home support and free shingles vaccines to seniors through an increased tax on the wealthy. Speaking in Victoria, Eby committed to bringing more than 500 health-care workers to B.C. He also committed to improving long term care facilities by bringing in more nurse practitioners and improved pharmacy services. He also promised to build more long-term care beds faster under the BC-Canada Prosperity Agreement and fairer wages for care workers in order to bring 5,000 care-home workers.
Conservatives press for answers on secret vehicle tax. The BC Conservatives are seeking to make a reported potential $100–$150 annual vehicle levy a campaign issue, arguing the NDP has been considering the measure to address TransLink’s structural funding challenges. The party is framing the proposal as another example of the Eby government making life more expensive for British Columbians and is calling on the NDP to disclose whether it intends to introduce the levy following the election. The Conservatives’ messaging comes as they continue to focus their campaign on affordability and attacking the NDP’s record on taxes and household costs.
The affordability contest has sharpened ahead of today’s leaders’ debate. The Conservatives’ income-tax pledge and the NDP’s cheaper groceries scheme and insurance-rate freeze give voters concrete offers to compare. They also expose the central vulnerability of each campaign: Doerkson must show that his promises are financially credible, while Eby must persuade voters that his government can be trusted to deliver, especially given the NDP’s failure to implement last election’s promised grocery rebate.
The Conservative tax announcement, which outlined a substantial increase in the basic personal exemption, gives many British Columbians a benefit they can picture receiving. That political narrative is easy to follow but it endangers the Conservatives’ argument about fiscal responsibility and exposes their current lack of a costed policy platform. The party is asking voters to believe they can reduce taxes while still improving services.
Eby’s promise to tackle the costs of groceries via limits on retail profit margins for selected grocery staples and ending hidden pricing schemes is substantially more difficult for voters to visualize than the NDP’s 2024 promise of a $1,000 grocery rebate. However, the party’s ICBC rate freeze announcement connects an affordability commitment to an existing policy that the government is more than happy to defend. The disagreement over no-fault insurance also gives Eby a way to question whether Conservative changes will raise auto insurance premiums for British Columbians in the middle of an affordability crisis. However, as more and more cases emerge of accident victims who are worse off as a direct result of the no-fault scheme, the substance of the policy can finally be subject to public debate.
The competing affordability arguments are arriving at a particularly important moment for both leaders. Angus Reid’s October 8 analysis found that many voters still struggle to identify Doerkson’s strengths or weaknesses, especially those still uncertain about their vote. Eby’s challenge is different. Perceptions of him are more established, with broken promises and concerns about leadership among the criticisms from respondents in that poll. The debate therefore offers Doerkson a chance to define himself and appear as the Premier-in-waiting, while Eby needs to persuade voters he deserves another term.
Candidate controversies complicate Doerkson’s task and will help Eby push a narrative that the Conservatives are not ready to govern. As advance voting opens October 16, the Conservatives will benefit if the ballot question focuses on affordability and whether voters’ quality of life has improved over the past decade of NDP leadership. The NDP benefits if voters focus on the risks, costs, and unanswered questions associated with changing government and electing a party that has been plagued by chaos over the past two years. Voters who intend to vote in advance will be making their final decisions as early as Friday so time is running out for the parties to shape the ballot question in the minds of British Columbians.
Recent polls all suggest a Conservative advantage heading into the debate. Research Co.’s October 13 release (conducted October 9–11) places the Conservatives at 44 per cent, the NDP at 42 per cent, the Greens at eight per cent, and CentreBC and OneBC at two per cent each among decided likely voters. It also finds 15 per cent of likely voters are still undecided, while 19 per cent of decided voters say they could change their choice. Liaison Strategies’ October 9 release (conducted October 7–8) gives the Conservatives the lead with 43 per cent, the NDP 37 per cent, Greens 10 per cent, OneBC four per cent, and CentreBC three per cent. Pallas released a poll on October 13 putting the Conservatives at 43 per cent, NDP at 38 per cent, and Greens at 11 per cent.
Will tonight’s debate move the dial? With advance voting opening in two days, campaigns will have little time to reinforce a strong debate performance or recover from a poor one. We’ll be watching for how quickly the parties turn their debate messages into advertising and efforts to get identified supporters to vote in the early polls.
Will all parties release costed platforms? We’ll be watching for detailed explanations of how tax changes, spending commitments, and economic-growth assumptions fit together. The Conservatives face pressure to reconcile their tax pledge with new investments and deficit reduction. The NDP faces questions about delivery and whether their proposed additional revenue can meet the expectations it is creating. Both the BC Greens and CentreBC have released costed platforms and on October 13, Eby announced the NDP platform will be fully costed and coming soon.
Will there be confusion at municipal polls on Saturday? Municipal election day on October 17 falls within provincial advance voting, which runs October 16–21. The overlap creates competing demands on voters’ attention, and many may show up at polling stations expecting to vote in the higher-profile provincial election, entirely unprepared for who they’ll be casting a ballot for at the local level.
We’re following the B.C. municipal election so you don’t have to! Introducing Earnscliffe’s municipal election tracker: your go-to source for key information on municipal races in 161 municipalities across 27 regional districts.
Learn more: Earnscliffe – BC Municipal Tracker