The provincial election campaign has entered its final week. All major parties have made their platforms available to the public, with attention now being given to whether their promises add up. For the NDP, the primary challenge is convincing dissatisfied voters that their record over the past decade, and especially in the last few years under David Eby, warrants another mandate. For the Conservatives, it is demonstrating that a change in government would deliver better results and not introduce new dramas given the behind-the-scenes chaos the party has faced under the last two leaders.
The potential impact of BC’s smaller parties can also not be overlooked. The BC Greens, CentreBC and OneBC remain active players in the campaigning landscape and appear confident they can win seats which will allow them to hold the balance of power in the legislature. If each of these smaller parties cannot manage to elect two members, they will not have party status in the BC Legislature, which would affect how often they are able to challenge the sitting government in Question Period.
With just days to go until E-Day and advance voting already underway, time is running out for the NDP and Conservatives to resolve voters’ remaining doubts and mitigate the risk of vote splitting on Saturday.
The debate put governing credibility front and centre. The October 14 televised debate brought Eby, Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson, and Green Leader Emily Lowan together for a direct contest over affordability, public services, and provincial finances. Doerkson attacked the NDP’s record and argued that stronger economic growth could finance improvements, while Eby challenged the credibility of Conservative promises and the judgment of his candidates and campaign team. Lowan sought to distinguish the Greens through a stronger emphasis on wealth taxation and public investment.
NDP attacks Conservatives for having Alberta separation ties. On October 19, the NDP were quick to highlight several Conservative Caucus members with ties to the Alberta separatist movement. MLAs Heather Maahs, Bryan Tepper, and David Williams were revealed to be members of social media groups, including the BC Prosperity Project, which have ties to the group behind the Alberta separatist movement.
The NDP’s release also quoted Lorne Doerkson’s “constituency president” who had gone on record to support western separation. This came as Eby held a rally in downtown Vancouver alongside fellow NDP candidates declaring support for a united Canada and denouncing Alberta separatism.
Eby promises urgent primary care centres across B.C. Healthcare and opening urgent primary care centres (UPCCs) have taken centre stage throughout the NDP campaign. Over the last week and throughout the campaign, the NDP have promised to open UPCCs in communities across Vancouver Island, Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, the Interior, and Northern B.C. These promises build on the 48 UPCCs already open across B.C., and are a core focus of the NDP platform to preserve and expand healthcare services.
NDP appeals to BC Green Party supporters. On October 19, as the campaign entered its final week, Eby called on progressive voters to vote for the NDP this election. Despite citing a great amount of respect for Lowan, Eby stated how she “will not be premier next week,” and emphasized that any vote for the Greens is potentially a vote for the Conservatives, allowing “generations of harm” to be done to B.C. Lowan firmly rejected Eby’s stance, characterizing the ask as an attempt by Eby to scare her supporters into voting for him, and she openly criticized his record on key issues.
NDP platform leaves substantial deficits in place. Released October 14, the NDP’s fiscal plan projects a deficit of approximately $13.8 billion in 2026–27, declining to roughly $12 billion in 2028–29. It relies partly on higher income taxes for top earners and additional revenues associated with economic growth to support its commitments. The plan gives Eby figures he can point to in defence of his promises, but also gives the Conservatives an opening to argue that another NDP mandate would prolong large deficits.
Conservatives release costed platform after advance voting begins. On October 18, two days after early polls opened, the Conservatives published a fiscal plan projecting a $10.8-billion deficit by 2030 and approximately $2.6 billion in additional revenues over three years from stronger economic growth. The plan includes an external hiring freeze, reduced consultant spending, and core ministry reviews to find cost savings. On October 19, Doerkson defended its assumption that annual growth could reach 3.2 per cent in 2029, arguing that investment in resource industries could help deliver it.
Municipal elections change the landscape. British Columbians replaced prominent mayors (many of them incumbents) across the political spectrum on October 17, producing substantial local change that indicated people were voting against the status quo versus in favour of a particular party. Vancouver elected Green councillor Pete Fry to the Mayor’s seat, along with a strongly progressive council, while Surrey and Langford returned former mayors Doug McCallum and Stew Young.
The Conservatives can point to significant turnover as evidence that voters are in the mood for change. The NDP can point to progressive gains in Vancouver and the survival of NDP-affiliated incumbents like Marianne Alto, Leonard Krog, and Brad West as evidence that the winds of change do not necessarily mean a shift to the right.
With advance polls open and all party platforms released (aside from OneBC’s), the focus has shifted to preserving momentum and suppressing opponents’ turnout on election day.
For the NDP, this has meant exposing wedge issues, such as highlighting separatist supporters within the Conservative ranks, a lack of costing in the Conservative platform, and questions about whether a Conservative government would follow through on its pledge not to cut healthcare spending.
For the Conservatives, this has meant criticizing the NDP’s record on affordability, economic development, healthcare reform, and public safety, and pushing the need for change.
The NDP has seized upon healthcare as a primary focus in the campaign. This has allowed them to tout some genuine progress made on the file while also attacking the Conservatives with claims of cuts and chaos under Doerkson government.
The Conservatives appear to be maintaining a slight upper hand in the polls, but vote splitting from CentreBC and OneBC is still a major potential threat across tight ridings. Kelowna Centre for example, where the Conservative MLA won by only 40 votes and where a OneBC (and no Green Party) candidate is running, could swing to the NDP.
The BC Greens are running more candidates than ever before in a provincial election. Should their supporters sway towards the NDP, this could be a considerable and vital boost of support the NDP in critically tight races; if they stick with the Greens, Eby’s vote splitting nightmare could come true.
On the right side of the political spectrum, the Conservatives have not made the same public appeal to CentreBC and OneBC supporters, which could be seen as a sign of their party leadership’s confidence heading into Saturday.
Also notable is that candidate controversies don’t appear to be doing any significant damage. Several attempts by the NDP to highlight controversial elements of Conservative candidates, team members, and supporters have received little media attention and have had little impact in public polling. In addition, David Eby continues to face criticism on calling a snap election in the first place.
B.C.’s recent municipal election is indicative of an appetite for change across the electorate. With some municipalities swaying left and others to the right, the common theme on Saturday’s local elections was a desire for turnover and new ideas at the council tables. The question remains whether this appetite for change will translate into decreasing support for the NDP on October 24.
Despite a lack of momentum and continued criticism of the NDP, the parties still appear to be locked in a close race. Local candidates with strong teams on the ground may prove to be the difference in vital battlegrounds like Surrey.
So far more than 330,000 (almost one in ten British Columbians) have already cast their ballots in advance polls. With Saturday fast approaching, and many ridings with crowded fields of candidates from five political parties, one thing is clear: every vote will count.
New polling conducted after the debate shows a narrower race, with the Conservatives still ahead. Angus Reid’s latest survey (October 15-19) puts the Conservatives at 46 per cent, the NDP at 43 per cent, and the Greens at eight per cent among decided and leaning voters. The Conservative lead has narrowed from five points in Angus Reid’s October 5 poll to three, but its supporters remain more firmly committed, with 73 per cent saying they are very certain of their choice compared with 54 per cent of NDP supporters.
Léger’s October 14 release, conducted October 9–12 before the debate, recorded 42 per cent Conservative, 40 per cent NDP, and nine per cent Green. Together, the surveys indicate a competitive contest with a Conservative advantage, rather than a decisive lead.
Does advance turnout indicate increased voter engagement? We’ll be looking to see if the high turnout at provincial advance polls so far is indicative of a higher overall turnout this election, or if British Columbians are simply choosing to “get it over with” amidst election fatigue.
Where will strategic voting pressure build? A close contest will intensify efforts to persuade Green, CentreBC, and OneBC supporters that their choice could determine the next government. We’ll be watching whether smaller parties can defend their strongest local candidates against that pressure, and whether the major parties concentrate their closing appeals on particular ridings.
Where will local ground game make the difference? Province-wide polling can’t establish how each party’s support will translate into actual seats. Closely contested ridings, particularly in Surrey and the Lower Mainland, deserve particular attention in the final days. Individual candidates’ recognizability and local strength on the ground can end up making the difference in tight races.