By Roselie LeBlanc and Gregor Sharp
Over the past year, references to “grace” on social media have more than quadrupled compared to the previous year – tied to forgiveness, patience, and giving people the benefit of the doubt. It’s a subtle cultural shift, but one that may be shaping how Canadians view and accept Prime Minister Mark Carney. Because in a political moment defined by volatility, Canadians appear to be extending that same spirit of grace as he manages a fraught relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Any avid consumer of political commentary right now will be hearing no shortage of pundits suggesting Canadians are frustrated, confused, or losing patience with how the Prime Minister is handling the trade file. We wanted to discover if that was true, or if we’re underestimating Canadians’ ability to recognize that this moment sits far outside the norms of modern Canada-U.S. relations.
Our hunch: Canadians are not as upset as the Ottawa bubble might have you believe, instead they are reserving judgment. Offering grace.
Earnscliffe’s latest National Omnibus poll shows that Canadians’ views are indeed more nuanced than the prevailing commentary suggests.
When asked how Prime Minister Carney is managing relations with President Trump, 42% approved, 31% disapproved, and 21% were neutral. Opinions on the broader trade negotiations look nearly identical. What stands out is not overwhelming support, but restraint. Canadians appear to be acknowledging the uniqueness of the moment and, at least for now, extending patience rather than punishment.
Another common refrain among pundits is that this government has a major communications problem – including effectively keeping Canadians informed about our trade relations with the U.S. Is this more of an Ottawa insider narrative or is this something Canadians are feeling? The data points to the former. More than half (53%) of those surveyed approve of how he has kept Canadians informed about their status – in fact, only one-in-five (20%) disapprove. Even many who aren’t thrilled with the direction of the talks acknowledge the effort to keep the public in the loop – including notably higher level of approvals on this point across partisan lines. In a context this sensitive, that willingness to separate process from progress is another subtle sign of grace.
Then there’s Keystone XL – incredibly polarizing but now being used as a tool in the trade negotiation toolbox. Talk has surrounded the incongruence of Prime Minister Carney’s messaging – discussing less reliance on the U.S., while offering up a pipeline that would bring oil to the U.S. Here, Canadians are divided. Nearly one-third (31%) of Canadians believe it conflicts with reducing reliance on the U.S., while 24% say re-engaging on the project aligns with strengthening U.S. relations. Fifteen percent think it shouldn’t be pursued at all and a full 30% are unsure – a striking level of uncertainty that underscores just how complex and emotionally loaded the issue remains.
Worth noting given the current conversation surrounding pipelines in Western Canada, Albertans are the mostly likely to say re-engaging on Keystone XL aligns with improving U.S. relations (36%), compared to just 26% of those in British Columbia that say the same.
So, are Canadians in their grace era? For now, the evidence points to yes. Canadians seem willing to grant their leaders room to navigate an abnormal moment with an unpredictable partner. But grace is not infinite and how long it lasts is an open question. That, unfortunately for all of us, is something even the best data can’t answer.
About the survey
The online survey, conducted by Earnscliffe Strategies’ opinion research team, was in field from October 30 to November 2, and engaged a nationally representative stratified sample of 2,017 respondents living in Canada who are members of Leger’s LEO panel. For comparison purposes only, a survey of this size would have a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points at a confidence level of 95%.
