The platforms are all out. The only televised debate is over. The last day for elections NL to receive any special ballots will be Saturday, October 11. Advertising must cease by Sunday October 12. There’s been a notable absence of publicly released polls with data gathered during the writ period. Some 25,000+ have already voted in the advanced poll. And on Tuesday, October 14 Newfoundland and Labrador will have its general election day.
Despite the lack of publicly released polls, there is a sense that the race is very close between Premier Hogan’s Liberals and Tony Wakeham’s PC Party. The NDP hope to at least regain their two seat count and two independent incumbents, Eddie Joyce and Paul Lane, have high hopes of re-election.
Campaign cut and thrust
Cost of living, public safety, services (especially healthcare) and the Upper Churchill Hydroelectric MOU all featured heavily in the campaign. PC leader Tony Wakeham made an effort to put the Hogan Liberals on their heels over reports of NL Health CEO holding a report that includes possible spending reductions five areas in health care.
The Liberals also faced criticism from the NDP for being late to the game on promising to remove HST from power bills when Liberal MHAs voted against an NDP resolution calling for the measure just seven months earlier. Both opposition parties have questioned Liberal spending decisions on private agency nurses, an attempt to award outgoing ministers exit bonuses, and the government’s sponsorship of a UK soccer team. While all of this was covered, the cut and thrust that received even more attention in the first weeks of the writ were the municipal elections all over the province that did not conclude until October 2.
Party platforms
All parties chose to reveal their platforms somewhat incrementally. In the by-elections of 2024 and earlier this year, despite several policy announcements, PC leader Wakeham was often accused of being overly critical and negative without presenting his own plan. By the end of the summer, the tables turned somewhat as on health care, public safety and other areas the Liberal platform planks dropped after the PC announcements, leading the Tories to label the Liberal plans “copy and paste.” While the parties have outlined dozens of policies on many social and environmental topics, the election discussion has largely been focused on cost of living, services and the economy. On public safety, the parties generally all promise more resources for prosecution, policy and mental health.
Liberal
Progressive Conservative
NDP
Economy
- Continued announcements often related to green energy excellence
- Strong focus on Churchill Hydroelectric project.
- Support for offshore projects such as Bay Du Nord (Also mentioned by Prime Minister Carney during his summer visit to NL)
- Strong emphasis on being a “pro-business” pro-mining, pro-energy development government
- Continue to push back on emissions cap and other federal laws that inhibit energy and resource development
- Reduce the timeline from offshore discovery to production
- Reduce payroll tax
- Reduce red tape
- More aggressive pursuit of free trade between provinces
- Designate a special critical minerals section in the Industry department
- Invest $5 million annually in investment attraction Prioritize/mandate local hiring
Churchill MOU
- Support the existing MOU, and commit to bringing the ultimate main agreement back to the House of Assembly for ratification.
- Insists that MOU should be independently reviewed and likely renegotiated. Promises a referendum on the MOU.
- Largely silent on the specifics of the MOU, but signals support for developing the project and others
Infrastructure & transportation
- Plans to replace His Majesty’s Penitentiary with a new facility. ($692.8 million)
- Municipal water and sewer upgrades promises
- Integration of eastern Avalon public transport
- Additional transmission lines in Labrador.
- Four new provincial ferries to service remote communities
- Return of 24hr snow clearing Road safety review
- Increase Cellular coverage in rural Newfoundland
- Call to include Labrador west third transmission line among nation building projects list
- Regional transit strategy
Healthcare
- Provincial medicare coverage for treatment in the province’s new Vita Nova rehab center.
- 10 new primary health care mobile teams
- $2 Million towards practicum tuition costs for nursing students.
- $2 million to expand travel locum program
- Ending any fees for nurse practitioner visits
- 4 new MRIs
- 50 more spaces at Memorial University’s School of Nursing
- Double funding for nurse practitioner program
- Restore Botwood’s and Whitbourne’s 24 hr. emergency departments
- Disabilities advocate
- Gander-based daily air medical service
- Funding for the Lionel Kelland Hospice in central Newfoundland
- Full time job guarantees for all nursing graduates
- End the private travel nurse program
- Hire 140 additional health care workers in Labrador
- Bursaries and accommodation allowances for nursing school seats outside of St. John’s and Corner Brook
Cost of living
- Make tax reduction on gasoline and diesel permanent
- Keep the home heating supplement program
- Remove the provincial portion of the HST from all residential electricity bills
- Increase the income threshold for the provincial seniors’ benefit by 10 per cent
- Aging well at home grant & caregiver credit ($800)
- Create a 10-year poverty reduction plan and prevention strategy.
- Expand child benefit eligibility
- Increase the seniors’ benefit
- Permanently cut the provincial gas tax
- Raise the basic personal exemption to $15,000
- $2,000 tax credit for rotational workers
- Remove HST on children’s essentials like clothing, shoes and car seats, along with relief for extracurricular-related needs like swimsuits
- Raise the minimum wage over four years to $22 an hour
- Increase the Seniors’ Benefit by 25
- Introduce Guaranteed Basic Livable Income pilot program to N.L.
Education
- Improve the school system, by decreasing some class sizes, better distributing teachers and adding 175 teaching and learning assistants through 2025-26. The plan is for that number to grow to 200 the following year
- Free school supplies for students in Kindergarten to grade six
- Expand the school lunch program for pre-Kindergarden to grade nine students
- Tuition refund program to reimburse tuition through the income tax system
- $10 million to the College of the North Atlantic to expand seats in high-demand trades
- Hire 200 students and teaching assistants
Televised leaders debate
On October 8, the televised leader’s debate featured the Liberal, PC and NDP leaders. There were no “knockout blows.” As the incumbent, Hogan did try to project a more youthful enthusiasm and looking to the future, accused PC leader Tony Wakeham of promising spending the province couldn’t afford to place the cost on future generations. Wakeham shot back at Hogan over spending, asserting that the PC’s have identified approximately $254 million of irresponsible spending by the Liberals that could be better used elsewhere.
Both NDP leader Jim Dinn and Tony Wakeham took aim at Hogan for making commitments on provincial taxes on power, promising to sign the pharmacare deal with the federal government, and resources for key services – saying the government’s had years to move on these items and has even actively opposed them at various times. The NDP leader, having voted with the Liberals in the House of Assembly on the Churchill Hydroelectric MOU largely stayed out of the exchanges on the project except to support its development. Hogan at one point addressed the criticism of rushing the agreement by saying the MOU has been public for 10 months and that really the deal has been in the works since the last one in 1969 – challenging Wakeham on when if ever he’d support a deal. Wakeham restated the need for a full independent expert review, which may lead to negotiation, but only when that is completed should any MOU or ultimate agreement go to the people though a referendum. This ties back to recommendations from the inquiry into the cost-increase-plagued Muskrat Falls hydro project.
Election will be won or lost in the trenches
While each camp will frame the best lines and moments from the debate and their own campaigns, the 2025 Newfoundland and Labrador general election will likely be won or lost on the strength and efforts of candidates in the districts, with heated races in St. John’s, Central Newfoundland, Western Newfoundland and Labrador. There is greater unpredictability in this election as many incumbents did not re-offer. The PCs recruited and nominated sooner and faster than the other parties, but both the Liberals and the NDP are fielding some new star candidates that they expect will make gains. Voter turnout at the advanced polls is just over 25,000, actually about 10,000 lower than in 2021. Lower turnout is often a strong sign favouring incumbent governments, however there were also many logistical hurdles for special ballot voting and changes in polling structure and location that may have had an effect.
For more insights on the Newfoundland + Labrador election, connect with Senior Consultant Liam O’Brien.
