It’s official. Newfoundlanders and Labradorians go to the polls on October 14, the last possible day under the province’s Elections Act. Liberal NL Premier John Hogan will face the electorate just four months after he was selected as the new party leader following the surprise resignation of Premier Andrew Furey.
Newfoundland and Labrador’s House of Assembly has 40 seats, making the threshold for majority 21 seats. This year has seen change not just in the leadership of the NL Liberal government, but also in the Liberal slate that will be running this time. More than ten incumbent Liberals decided either to resign or not run again. During 2024 there was a series of by-elections in the districts of Fogo Island – Cape Freels, Baie Verte – Green Bay, and Waterford Valley, with the Liberals losing the first two districts to Tony Wakeham’s Progressive Conservatives. Later in 2024, the Liberal lead again widened to ten points in the public opinion polls. There have been few publicly released polls since then, however there is a view that the race has against tightened considerably due to several challenges and controversies faced by the Liberal government.
Party Standings in the Newfoundland + Labrador House of Assembly
| Party | 2021 Election | At Dissolution |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal Party | 22 | 19 |
| PC Party | 13 | 14 |
| NDP | 2 | 1 |
Hogan’s rocky summer
Becoming Premier on May 9, 2025, John Hogan inherited a government with some bruises, some coming from the Upper Churchill Hydroelectric Memorandum of Understanding signed by Hogan’s predecessor, Andrey Furey. The Official Opposition as well as ex-premiers and NL Hydro executives have criticized this MOU with Hydro Quebec as problematic and filled with concessions on term, market structure, and price. As Justice Minister, Hogan was part of the team involved in MOU negotiations. The team and the government faced strong criticism for engaging in a process that ignored the recommendations of the inquiry into the Muskrat Falls Hydroelectric deal from era of ex-premier Danny Williams. The MOU has also been compared to universally disliked “giveaway” deal on the development of the original Upper Churchill Falls project in 1969. This original deal, signed by then premier Joe Smallood, has featured prominently in political rhetoric from both major parties ever since.
Hogan has also faced a wave of announcements from cabinet and caucus colleagues who either resigned or announced they would not run again. There was also controversy over planned “exit bonuses” for Hogan’s colleagues, which he then had to cancel. Other issues facing the government include ongoing measures to address the US tariff threat, criticisms over the costs of the private travel nurse program, and the government’s cost overruns in accommodating refugees.
Liberals, PCs, & NDP announce policies
Election speculation increased last week as the Liberals, PCs and NDP all made major policy and project announcements. Premier Hogan made announcements about further subsidizing air travel to and from Labrador within the province as well as water upgrades for the Harbour Grace Area. PC Leader Tony Wakeham announced a PC government would beef up firefighting capabilities and equipment support for firefighters as well as promising four new provincial ferries for coastal communities. Jim Dinn’s NDP have promised an electricity rate investigation and review, and an end to private agency nurses in the province. Tony Wakeham has also promised a complete review of the Upper Churchill MOU by an independent third party.
While leaders’ tours started last week, with the official campaign period now underway, more policy announcements are expected, as well as at least one televised leaders’ debate. The Hogan Liberals have been more willing to share the stage with Prime Minister Mark Carney, especially after the reiteration of his support for the Churchill Falls hydroelectric development and the Bay du Nord offshore development. On the Conservative side, there remains greater distance between the PC Party and the federal conservatives, though local CPC MPs and PC MHAs do usually support each others’ local campaigns.
Seats to watch
Party nominations have been accelerating over the past few months. Both the PCs and the Liberals only have a handful of nominations to complete and the NDP opened most of their district nominations on August 29 and have yet to close them. The NDP are not expected to run a full slate but will likely focus their efforts in St. John’s where it has more support and campaign presence.
With so many districts without their incumbents running, the election will see many hotly contested races.
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans
This district in Central Newfoundland has been represented by PC MHA Chris Tibbs, who has been the MHA since 2019. In 2021, Tibbs defeated the Liberal challenger with nearly 60% of the vote. However, his challenger in 2025 is Barry Manuel – Mayor of the largest town in the region – Grand Falls-Windsor. Despite an overall province-wide tightening in support levels, districts like this one may buck the overall trend.
Corner Brook
This district had been represented by Liberal MHA and former Liberal MP Gerry Byrne. Byrne isn’t running again, so all candidates will be fresh faces. While the western Newfoundland city of Corner Brook has leaned much more Liberal, especially since the creation of this district in 2015, the Liberals face a serious challenge from the PCs this time. Charles Pender, former mayor of Corner Brook is running for the PCs against current Mayor Jim Parsons.
Labrador West
NDP MHA Jordan Brown first eked out a 2 vote victory over his Liberal opponent in 2019, becoming one of the youngest MHAs in NL history. He resigned on August 1, 2025, and announced plans to run to be Mayor of Labrador City. Labrador West is expected to be a three way race between Wabush Town Councillor Shazia Razi (NDP), civil servant Joe Power (PC) and Realtor Todd Seward (Liberal). Labrador West has a significant number of NLers who moved there from the island of Newfoundland to work in the various mines in the area. There is also a strong union presence in Labrador City and Wabush.
For more insights on the Newfoundland + Labrador election, connect with Senior Consultant Liam O’Brien.
