What just happened?
Canada returned to a predominantly two-party political system in this past Monday’s election, with the two main parties together winning 84.9% of the popular vote and 312 of the 343 seats in the House of Commons. The Liberals elected 169 MPs, three short of a majority, while the Conservatives took 144 seats. The Bloc Quebecois elected 22 MPs and the NDP 7 MPs, five short of the 12 seats needed for official party status in the House. The Greens retained the seat of their co-leader, Elizabeth May.
The trend toward a two-party system was reflected in the distribution of the popular vote in this Monday’s election. In winning 43.7% of the votes, the Liberals obtained their highest level of public support since the election of 1980, when they took 44.3% of the vote. The Conservatives’ 41.3% was the highest proportion they have won since the 1988 election. The NDP suffered the largest collapse in public support in the party’s history, garnering only 6.3% of the votes cast.
Two of the main party leaders lost their seats, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh. While Mr. Poilievre lost his Carleton riding seat in suburban Ottawa, early speculation is that he will remain as leader and contest a seat in a by-election, possibly in Conservative-friendly Alberta where he grew up. Mr. Singh placed a disappointing third in Burnaby Central, in B.C.’s lower mainland, to Liberal newcomer Wade Chang and Conservative candidate James Yan, and resigned during his election night speech to the party faithful
A less partisan political atmosphere
The fevered partisan environment of the last 18 months will abate in the House of Commons as a result of the election. The government was elected with a clear mandate to manage the ongoing crisis in Canada-U.S. relations and Canadians will have little appetite to see the return of political gamesmanship. Therefore, despite falling just short of a majority, the Carney government will enjoy a period of political calm for several months. Already, Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet has said he won’t “threaten to overthrow the government anytime soon”. If he seeks to return to the House through a byelection, the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre will be involved in that process until at least this coming fall. Finally, with the NDP having lost their leader and official party status in the House of Commons, they will be occupied with internal issues for the foreseeable future.
The path back to normal
End of the Caretaker Period
The Caretaker Convention) took effect with the issuing of the election writ on March 23, limiting the actions a government can take during the election period. If the results of the election clearly indicate the incumbent government has been returned, the caretaker period ends, and the government ceases to operate in caretaker mode. Given that the election resulted in a strong Liberal minority, the caretaker period will come tom an end shortly. The incumbent government headed by Mark Carney and his ministers remain in place until the new government is sworn in.
Return of the election writs
Between seven and 14 days after the election, the Returning Officer in each constituency validates the results, enters the name of the winning candidate in the election writ and returns the writ to the Chief Elections Officer. This step must be completed before the MPs are individually sworn in. If recounts are necessary due to close results, the writs for the affected l ridings are held until a winner is declared.
Governor-General Special Warrants
These are used by the government to obtain funds when Parliament is dissolved due to an election. Special warrants make it possible for the core operations of government to continue during the period that Parliament is not sitting and while the normal supply process has been interrupted. During the recent election, the Carney government issued a warrant for $40 billion to fund the operations of government. Since the authority to use special warrants expires 60 days after the return of the election writs, Parliament must grant supply by roughly the week of July 14.
What happens next?
The Prime Minister will be making a series of key decisions over the coming weeks. Here are some of the key considerations, implications and timelines for these decisions:
Urgent items for the Prime Minister/PMO
First up are a set of senior staffing decisions for PMO: Who is to be the Chief of Staff who in turn will advise the Prime Minister on the appointment of key personnel to head each of the primary divisions of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO): Policy and Cabinet Affairs, Communications and Research, Operations, and Issues Management and Parliamentary Affairs, The appointment of a key official to oversee Canada – U.S. relations is also an important consideration at this time.
- Senior PMO staff will need to deliver instructions on the themes and details of the Speech from the Throne to the drafters and then monitor the successive drafts as they develop between PMO and PCO.
- As the government is expected to table a Budget in June, initial directions to Finance Canada on its contents will be required. It is anticipated that the Budget will likely include the promised middle class tax cut, legislation to remove federal impediments to interprovincial trade, and authorization to open the renegotiation of CUSMA with the United States.
- In anticipation of Cabinet appointments, senior and experienced senior exempt staffers will need to be paired with ministers, especially new appointees. In addition, new Liberal MPs will need a significant number of new staffers.
When will the government and the cabinet be sworn in?
The last three cabinets have been sworn in between three and five weeks following the election. One senior Liberal official speaking on background has suggested that Mr. Carney expects to unveil his new cabinet within two weeks, suggesting the week of May 12-16 for the swearing-in. Early decisions by PMO on Cabinet composition are essential, as security clearance of new ministers is onerous and can take weeks to complete.
While the PM formed a new cabinet in mid-March, the Liberals elected several star candidates in this week’s election who are expected to be included in the new cabinet. The Globe and Mail reported on April 29 that some of the potential new MPs the Prime Minister could bring into cabinet include former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitao, ex-Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson, former Delta Chamber of Commerce executive director Jill McKnight in B.C., climate change activist Shannon Miedema in Halifax and gun control advocate Nathalie Provost in Quebec.
In addition, Carney’s appointments to cabinet six weeks ago were rushed due to the scheduled end of prorogation and impending election. With more time, he may want to make additional adjustments to departmental mandates and the machinery of government, including the possible appointment of a Deputy Prime Minister.
Appointments of ministers to Cabinet Committees will be announced at the time of the swearing-in, or shortly thereafter.
When might Parliament resume sitting?
A senior Liberal official has also suggested that the new government intends to recall Parliament in late May, shortly after the swearing in of cabinet, for a Speech from the Throne and the granting of supply. These would constitute the first confidence votes that the new government will face in the House of Commons.
Legislative program
Development of the plan for legislation must await the appointment of the Cabinet and House Leader, but initial decisions can be made by PMO on urgent items needed for the spring sitting of the House. Top priorities will likely be included in the Throne speech. The government will have the summer to draft more complex legislative items for the fall sitting, which is currently scheduled to begin on September 15, 2025.
Formation of House of Commons committees
Committee membership generally mirrors the party standings in the House. The process of forming House committees is complicated and takes some time:
- Party Whips consult their respective caucuses and prepare lists of candidates for committee membership.
- House Approval: The House of Commons votes on the proposed committee membership.
- Chairs and Vice-Chairs: Most standing committees are chaired by members of the governing party, with the first vice-chair being from the Official Opposition and the second vice-chair from another opposition party. There are a few exceptions, where the chair is from the Official Opposition.
- Associate Members: Committees also have associate members who can participate in committee work, especially on subcommittees.
The question of NDP membership on committee and whether they will be recognized as an official party by the House remains an open question at this time.
Insights in this piece contributed by Geoff Norquay.
