Written by Stephanie Coulter, Opinion Research.
With less than a week until Election Day, the latest polling results from various firms still show a two-way race with the Liberals leading, but there is a bit a wobble in the horse race numbers. Is the gap tightening? Widening? It depends on who you ask.
For their part, the debates appear to have had little impact on voter intention, which is not really surprising – neither the French debate nor the English one produced anything resembling a knockout punch or a tremendous gaffe that would sway voters one way or another.
There isn’t much time left to persuade voters, and all eyes will be on the party leaders this week. The major party platforms have all just landed, with few precious days for any real analysis. Though it may feel like an uneventful election campaign, especially in contrast to the zany weeks leading up to it, there are still some variables left in play.
One detail to decipher is the tremendous turnout for advance polls over Easter weekend. Is this foreshadowing a high voter turnout on April 28? Perhaps it just means that many voters are firm in their choices and see no need to wait. Is it motivated by anger, a desire for change, or just our pent-up feelings of nationalism? And which party – if any – stands to benefit from it?
Speaking of the long weekend, the election was undoubtedly a hot topic around many dinner tables across the nation over the past few days. We know there are some significant differences in voting intention across age groups this election, but holidays can influence election outcomes when people break their daily routines and mix socially across generations right before they cast their votes.
The latest numbers from the Earnscliffe Omni show a substantial lead for the Liberals among Boomers and Silent Generation voters, but a much closer race in younger cohorts (and the Conservatives leading among Millennials). Our research also shows that the older generations are less open to changing their vote, but potential fluidity in the younger vote may manifest itself in unpredictable ways. Other recent research tells us that younger voters are less ideologically attached to political parties, and, historically speaking, their turnout for elections tends to be lower.
Is it possible that cross-generational conversations over the weekend may have changed some minds? Will the boomers budge? Will the Millennials heed their elders? Will Gen-Z come out to vote? In an election underpinned by issues that are particularly high stakes for younger Canadians (i.e. housing, affordability, immigration, Trump), that volatile youth vote may bring some surprises in an election that is otherwise starting to feel set.
We won’t really know the answers to these questions until after the election, when we can pull apart the voting results with the clarity that only comes from hindsight. But speaking as a pollster, I’m savouring this moment of anticipation in the last few days. See you all on the other side (April 29).
Data is from the Earnscliffe Omni, a national, syndicated, online survey of 2,004 Canadian respondents drawn from Leger’s LEO panel. Data collection occurred from March 27 to 30, 2025. As this is not a probability sample, no margin of error can be reported.
