Earnscliffe Strategies

  • Apr 11, 2025
  • Insights

Election report: week three

Liberal Leader Mark Carney, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, Green Party co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault, PPC Leader Maxime Bernier.

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The evolving ballot question

As we pass the mid-point in the election, the three main parties have converged on their approaches to Canada-U.S. relations and how the country should respond to the imposition of tariffs on Canada’s exports to the United States. The result is that differences between the parties on how to deal with Trump have diminished; in fact, the similarities are growing every day. Reflecting these changes, the ballot question has evolved from “which leader is best equipped to handle Trump?” to “how should Canada adapt to the new world order?”

In the wake of the Trump reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2, Mark Carney sounded an ominous note about the post-war period on which Canadians have come to depend, stating “The old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over. The global economy is fundamentally different today than what it was yesterday.” In week 2 of the campaign, Pierre Poilievre completed the pivot of his campaign’s direction and emphasis to address the Trump tariff threats and actions more directly. This has enabled him to compete more effectively with Carney on how best to expand Canada’s resiliency in the new global economy.

Both Poilievre and Carney favour lessening Canada’s reliance on the U.S., with Poilievre  matching Mark Carney’s promise to seek an early renegotiation of CUSMA and our security relationships with the U.S. He and Carney agree that the Trump tariffs violate CUSMA, but Poilievre also signalled to Trump that he would revoke any defence, border and market commitments if he reneged on a new trade agreement. Poilievre gave tacit support to the Liberals’ counter-tariffs last week, and both leaders have agreed that the revenue generated should be used to support business and workers directly impacted by the U.S. trade actions. Poilievre also matched Jagmeet Singh’s proposal of the previous week to eliminate the GST on Canadian-made automobiles.

Poilievre touted his new approach was completed on the Quebec TV news program “Cinq Chefs” last week,  coming out in favour of the Trudeau government’s digital services tax on the global tech giants that has so riled successive U.S. administrations: “The principle is a fair idea. It’s that these businesses earn revenue in Canada, so the principle is that they should contribute where they earn the revenue. So, I think, on this question, we should keep it in place.” Justin Trudeau couldn’t have said it better himself!

The leaders’ tours

Canada is a big country, so at the start of an election campaign, the leaders will generally attempt to visit the five regions in quick succession. By week 3, informed by the polling results, the leaders’ tours will start playing offence and defence, spending time in those ridingsthat might be won from other parties while defending their own incumbent ridings, notably those that might be at risk. This led all three leaders to British Columbia this week, where the national collapse in NDP support is creating some unexpectedly close battles. (See our regional report on British Columbia below)

Poilievre started this week on Vancouver Island, parts of which traditionally feature fights between the Conservatives and NDP, and Mark Carney gave a major speech in the riding of Green Party co-leader Elizabeth May – no coincidence there. On Tuesday, Carney was in Delta. Jagmeet Singh was also in the Lower Mainland on Monday and Tuesday to “save the furniture”, given that many of party’s 13 B.C. seats may be in jeopardy, perhaps even his own. Singh was forced by reporters to declare that he will win Burnaby Central (previously Burnaby South), which he has held since 2019.

After visiting B.C., Pierre Poilievre moved to Edmonton for an enormous rally, where he was introduced by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who heartily endorsed him, followed by a visit Sault Ste. Marie. Poilievre and the Conservatives have been drawing some huge crowds of voters in the last couple of weeks: 4,500 in Hamilton, 5,500 in Surrey, 3,500 in Winnipeg, 4,200 in Oshawa and an impressive 10,000-12,000 (actual counts vary) in Edmonton this past Monday.

On Thursday, Poilievre and Carney both moved back to the 905 region surrounding Toronto to campaign in Milton and Brampton respectively, while Singh went to Saskatoon.

Are the polls wrong? Or are we just not looking closely enough?

In his latest, Earnscliffe’s Zubin Sanyal digs into the Conservatives’ ad strategy and the growing gap between what the numbers say and what’s actually happening on the ground.

On the voters’ minds: The issues moving voters (and the one that might tip the scales)

For weeks, the big story in Canadian polling has been the Liberal Party’s upward trajectory in the polls. To better understand what is specifically driving voter decisions, we asked Canadian voters which party they most associate with certain key issues. See what Stephanie Enns-Coulter, Opinion Research, found.

Policy in Week 3

The Conservatives

The Liberals

The NDP

Nominations are now closed

The deadline for parties to nominate candidates passed on April 7, with all three of the main parties coming within one candidate of a full slate in the 343 ridings. The Peoples Party of Canada has 247 candidates, the Greens have 232, and the Bloc Quebecois is contesting all 78 of Quebec’s ridings

In Carleton, the riding of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, a protest group called the Longest Ballot Committee has convinced 85 candidates to register to run as independents, in addition to the usual main party candidates. The protest group opposes the first-past-the-post voting system and is seeking to build support for electoral reform.

A notable late addition for the NDP is Ruth Ellen Brosseau, who will run again in her former riding of Berthier-Maskinongé. Brosseau held the riding from 2011 until her defeat by the Bloc Québécois in 2019. Originally elected as part of the NDP’s Quebec “orange wave” in 2011, Brosseau was a complete unknown who did not speak French and had never visited the riding but eventually worked her way up in the House of Commons to become the NDP’s house leader and one of the party’s most respected MPs. To make things more interesting in this riding, Brosseau came within 2,000 votes of the Bloc in 2021, and the Conservatives had to replace their candidate at the last-minute after some problematic posts on social media.

The public opinion polls

Canada338, which aggregates and averages national public opinion polls, today places the Liberals at 44%, ahead of the Conservatives at 37% and the NDP at 8%.

Several polls this week have shown a slight tightening up of the margin by which the Liberals are leading the Conservatives, but with the Liberals still firmly in majority territory when the polling results are projected into likely seat counts.

338canada.com/federal

In Quebec, the Liberals are at 44%, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 24% and the Conservatives at 23%. The NDP is trailing at 6%.

338canada.com/quebec

Next week is debate week

As we move into the final two weeks of the campaign, all eyes will turn to Montreal for the leaders’ debates next Wednesday and Thursday. The French language debate will be held on April 16 at 8 p.m. EDT. It will be moderated by Radio-Canada’s Patrice Roy. The English language debate will be held on April 17 at 7 p.m. EDT. It will be moderated by TVO’s Steve Paikin.

Insights in this piece contributed by Geoff Norquay.

Focus on British Columbia

Three unique regional campaigns will determine who represents B.C. in the next parliament.

Written by Bruce Young and Anita Zaenker.

At dissolution, the B.C. seat count saw a three-way split with the Liberals holding 14; the Conservative Party, 14 ridings; the NDP, 13; and the Greens 1. The 2022 federal redistribution process has added an additional seat to the B.C. total of 43 seats as well as adjusting the boundaries of many existing ridings in the province. 

There are traditionally three micro-campaigns that occur within the broad spectrum of any federal election in B.C.:

  • Vancouver Island (7 seats) is historically an NDP vs Conservative battle ground with modest Liberal strength on the South Island;
  • The populist-oriented Interior and North (10 seats),which usually produce Conservative vs NDP races;
  • The seat-rich Lower Mainland (26 seats), which has recently been a series of Liberal vs NDP contests with some Conservative strength in the eastern suburbs of Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

While these geographic cleavages persist, shifting public opinion ver recent months has fundamentally changed the race due to the combination of the existential threat to Canadian sovereignty from the Trump administration and the emergence of Mark Carney as Liberal leader and Prime Minister. This dynamic has caused a noticeable decline in support for the NDP, and a smaller decline in support for the Conservatives and Greens, all to the benefit of the insurgent Liberals. 

Thus far, the B.C. electorate appears to be increasingly polarized between a Liberal or Conservative choice, placing almost all NDP incumbents in jeopardy either from the Liberals or Conservatives. As elsewhere, a polarized electorate in B.C. creates challenges for those trying to model predictions for individual ridings that for a generation have been hard fought three-way races. If the NDP continues to hover well below traditional levels of support, there will be several surprises on election night. Despite recent polling, the NDP has traditionally punched well above its weight at the local level, enjoying vote efficiency and a superior ground game in several constituencies in east Vancouver, Burnaby, and parts of Vancouver Island.  At the mid-point of the campaign, the overall election dynamic remains volatile and is certainly subject to change. 

The Slates 

The Liberal party had little time to recruit a fresh slate of candidates, due in part to the focus on its recent leadership race and the fact that their polling numbers were so poor at the beginning of the year. Shifting fortunes have allowed them to secure several strong local candidates throughout the province including:

  • Former BC NDP MLA and three term Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson, who will be the party standard bearer in Vancouver Fraserview – South Burnaby.
  • Former Delta Chamber of Commerce executive director Jill McKnight in Delta.
  • Former MP and fighter pilot Stephen Fuhr in Kelowna.

The Conservatives, who until recently enjoyed a commanding lead in the polls, were much better organized, having secured high profile former MLAs Ellis Ross in Skeena-Bulkley Valley and Iain Black in Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam to run in their respective communities.

The NDP have many strong incumbents reoffering including federal Leader Jagmeet Singh and House Leader Peter Julian and have attracted high profile filmmaker and activist Avi Lewis to run the in Liberal stronghold of Vancouver Centre.

Many candidates in the Liberal and Conservative parties have been appointed which has caused some tension at the local level. The Conservatives have dropped one candidate from the ballot in B.C. due to controversy but replaced him before the deadline for nominations closed. There is a noticeable lack of gender equity amongst candidates in the Liberal and Conservative parties due to party candidate selection processes.

Shifting priorities for voters

Before the inauguration of Donald Trump, the primary preoccupation of British Columbians was squarely focused on the cost of living and affordability, housing, and health care. These issues dominated the public discourse during the provincial election last fall which saw the incumbent BC NDP re-elected with a narrow majority government. While these issues continue to be important across the province, a focus on Canada-U.S. relations has jumped forward as the overwhelming number one issue in the campaign. Anxiety about Trump’s threats to Canadian sovereignty have propelled this issue and has caused British Columbians to take individual actions in their daily lives which include refusing to purchase American goods at grocery stores and adjusting their travel and vacation plans away from American destinations. Will the Trump-caused anxiety continue to dominate voters’ minds up until election day, or will “time for a change” and affordability issues return to the forefront?

Ridings to watch

How the NDP performs will be critical to how Liberal and Conservative fortunes in this election. On election night, keep an eye on several key NDP incumbents including, for example, leader Jagmeet Singh in Burnaby Central, Don Davies in Vancouver Kingsway, Peter Julian in New Westminster-Burnaby-Mallardville, Laurel Collins in Victoria, Gord Johns in Courtenay-Alberni and Taylor Bachrach in Skeena-Bulkley Valley. Do these seats remain NDP, as they have for several successive elections? Or do voters vote strategically to keep out Conservatives, delivering the vote to Liberals (in the Lower Mainland and South Island), or split the vote among progressive options, delivering the vote to the Conservatives (in Central and Northern Vancouver Island and the Interior).