Written by Stephanie Enns-Coulter, Senior Consultant, Opinion Research
For weeks, the big story in Canadian polling has been the Liberal Party’s upward trajectory in voter intention polls. However, to better understand what is specifically driving voter decisions, we decided to ask Canadian voters which party they most associate with certain key issues.
Recent data from our national omnibus survey shows the Conservatives with an edge over the Liberals in several areas; these generally include the more traditional voter issues, like housing, the cost of living, crime, and the economy. This group of issues likely would have secured them a win back in Fall 2024. And based on other polling we’ve done, these are still priority areas for voters.
However, when it comes to Canada’s relationship with the United States, it’s the Liberals who hold a decided advantage among voters. While this isn’t the top priority for voters overall (our last wave of polling found it ranked behind housing, healthcare, affordability, and jobs), tariffs and other Trump-related concerns are driving a high degree of fluidity in voter intention that has seen the Liberals picking up voter intention not just at the expense of the Conservatives, but the NDP and the Bloc as well.
Right now, based on our survey results, the Liberals would appear poised to win a majority government, but if we should take anything away from these last few months, it’s that voters are not entrenched in their choices. Winds can change, and there’s no intrigue in polling without something to watch for.
As we head into the later days of the campaign, there are signs the national conversation could turn. The menace of Trump isn’t going away anytime soon but neither will the housing crisis, inflation, or Canada’s lagging healthcare system. There is still plenty of time left before Election Day for parties to lead a fulsome conversation on these issues, and be the driver of those decisions before voters head to the polls.
Political parties often try and make certain issues central to their messaging and strategy. Based on what you’ve seen or heard recently, which party do you most associate with each of the following topics?
