Written by Zubin Sanyal, Principal.
A closer look at how the Conservatives are winning hearts and votes.
Longtime readers (circa March 2025) will remember that we kicked off our election coverage not with numbers, but with emotion.
The Conservatives get this. Deeply.
They’ve built their campaign on a masterclass in emotional storytelling. It started with Poilievre’s now-iconic Pearson Airport stroll in the middle of the pandemic, setting the tone for “Canada is broken,” and kept it rolling with carbon tax stats, crime headlines and immigration talking points.
Now comes the pivot.
Poilievre and his team are trying to skate in the opposite direction, pulling a full 180, to convince Canadians that Canada isn’t broken after all, and that we’re the ones in control of the puck.
That’s the backdrop of something rather unusual, among many unusual things, happening right now.
Polls are saying one thing.
People on the ground are saying something else.
Let’s jump in.
(Oh, and it’s April 7 at 5:22pm, as I sit down to write this.)
Talk of the telly
It may not shock you to learn that what’s airing on good old terrestrial TV tells us very little about the Conservatives’ current ad strategy. And right now, in particular, it tells us even less. We’re likely on the edge of an all-out blitz aimed squarely at the Liberals failed record of the past decade.
Two reasons I say this:
- The ads I’m seeing through a tracking tool I use to show me creative running across major networks are mostly holdovers from before the writ dropped. Nothing fresh. Nothing aggressive.
- We’re now about two weeks post-writ. That’s exactly when you would expect the CPC brain trust to have seen their favourables dip, mapped the tariff landscape, sized up Carney’s vulnerabilities, filmed a new batch of attack ads and tested them within an inch of their lives. If they’re as disciplined as the Liberals are about only launching what’s message-tested and ready for prime time, that timing checks out.
For now, what we are seeing is all anti-Carney. The palette is deep red. The tone is ominous. The music low and menacing. It’s classic loss aversion psychology and it plays right into the base’s emotional wheelhouse.
However, with Trudeau having stepped aside quickly, I believe these ads have blended into the noise. Just more angry static in a media environment already swamped by U.S. headlines and trade war drama.
Now, if I were the Liberals, and I wanted to play 4D chess with the Conservatives, I’d be prepping my own fresh creative right now and locking down every available ad slot around the debates.
People who know a lot more than I do believe the real break point between the Liberals and the Conservatives will come during those debates on April 16 and 17.
If there’s still inventory up for grabs, both sides need to claim as much of it as possible.
Talk of the town(hall)
Longtime readers will also remember we flagged something curious about two weeks ago. Pierre Poilievre’s ads on Facebook and Instagram were focused entirely on event sign-ups.
No persuasion. No fundraising asks. Just one message: show up.
At the time, it was hard to tell whether that was strategic or just leftover creative from the pre-writ period.
It wasn’t. This was the strategy all along.
Poilievre’s Facebook and Instagram accounts continue to optimize for one thing, and one thing only: filling rooms.
Here’s what’s active right now.
And here’s what was active just a few days ago. Same image. Same layout. Same message. Just different dates and locations.
And this is where things start to get interesting.
While the polls have the Liberals coasting somewhere near Neptune, online chatter is full of something else. Video after video of massive, energized crowds showing up for Poilievre. Again, and again.
Here’s what a simple search for “CPC rally” turns up on X. Don’t get distracted by the messengers. Focus on what they are showing you.
Ask yourself this. Is it real? Are the polls off? Or are we just not seeing the full picture?
We just watched a version of this play out in the United States. Yes, different country and different context. But the same tension was there: do you believe the numbers or your own eyes?
Harris had the biggest fundraising day in campaign history. Thousands of new volunteers. Polls showed North Carolina in play. Nebraska’s Second District leaning blue. The second-most-watched debate ever. All great numbers.
None of it mattered.
This election is different in every obvious way. But the strategy the Conservatives are using feels familiar. Like a movie we just watched.
This is exactly what I love about modern campaigns. The margins between victory and defeat are razor thin. It all comes down to emotion. And when that emotion begins to align across digital behaviour and real-world action, it creates a momentum that feels unstoppable.
The Conservatives know Canadians are frustrated. They know people want change. And by optimizing their ads for event sign-ups, they are turning those feelings into something real.
People are showing up. They are taking photos. They are filming videos. They are posting and commenting and leaving more convinced than when they arrived.
Now imagine you’re scrolling your feed. You have felt disillusioned for years. You see crowds full of people who sound like you and feel what you feel. You hear people online say the media is ignoring it. You look at the polls and they don’t match what you are seeing.
You start to doubt the numbers. You start to believe your eyes.
You remember that feeling. That maybe Canada is broken after all.
And when election day comes, you vote exactly the way you always planned to.
And Pierre Poilievre becomes Canada’s 25th Prime Minister.
All of it sparked by one simple, relentless campaign tactic.
An ad in your feed telling you to sign up for a rally.
And maybe later, one inviting you to Prime Minister Poilievre’s swearing-in.
