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The ballot question
As the campaign got underway this week, the leaders of the three principal parties all worked to frame their preferred ballot question for the voters. For Mark Carney and the Liberals, it’s the Trump tariff threats and Canadian sovereignty and for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, the Liberal record on affordability and the cost of living. Jagmeet Singh and the NDP were talking about housing and affordability, but they’re also coping with a potential historic collapse of their support and party status in the next Parliament.
In the first week, it’s been interesting to watch how the Liberals and Conservatives are positioning themselves as “agents of change”. For Carney, it’s “See how I am leaving the failed Trudeau policies behind”, such as the carbon tax and the capital gains changes, and for Poilievre, the message is the more traditional “After nine years of Trudeau missteps and failures, it’s time to throw the bums out”.
While the polls continued to trend towards the Liberals, it’s still early days and the leaders are just beginning their journeys across the country. Given Canada’s size, it’s important to remember that a national election is actually a series of regional contests across the country. And as the old adage says, “campaigns matter” and “ground games matter more”, so let’s see what develops.
On the voters’ minds
Despite Canadians’ continuing preoccupation with the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on the economy, they remain focused on their everyday challenges. As Earnscliffe Strategies’ Principal Doug Anderson described in his analysis of our latest national omnibus survey, the top issues on voters’ minds are housing (23%); health care (22%); cost of living, inflation and affordability (22%); jobs and the economy (15%); tariffs, trade and Trump (14%); and taxes and spending (12%). The survey also found that “the Liberals now hold their largest lead among voters who prioritize jobs and the economy – issues that have historically leaned more Conservative – as well as the new issue of tariffs.”
On advertising
This election isn’t just short, it’s striking an unusually emotional chord. In just five weeks, Canada’s major parties have to do more than land messages. They need to move people. Our Principal of Digital Strategy, Zubin Sanyal, explored how emotion is shaping campaign strategy and the outcomes it could lead to and the outcomes it could lead to.
Trump enters the campaign
Late Wednesday afternoon, Donald Trump said he will enact his long-awaited tariffs on imported vehicles beginning on April 2, levying a 25% tariff on finished automobiles and auto parts imported into the U.S. from Canada and other countries. Vehicles imported under the USMCA will be taxed at the same amount based on their non-U.S. content. Auto parts covered by the trade agreement will face tariffs at a later date, also based on their non-U.S. content.
On Thursday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he spoke on the phone with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick Wednesday night and was told that Canadian-made vehicles with 50 per cent or more American parts will not face the tariffs. Following a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. Relations, Prime Minister Carney said, “The old relationship we had with the U.S. based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military co-operation is over.” He promised that Canada will respond next week “with retaliatory tariffs of our own that will have maximum impact in the United States and minimum impact here in Canada.” The Toronto Star reported that Canadian officials have “identified other countermeasures against $65 billion worth of U.S. imports” that could be imposed on American products entering Canada.
Still to come next week are details of the U.S reciprocal tariffs, which are slated to by announced by President Trump in April 3.
Leaders’ tours
Mark Carney began the week in Atlantic Canada, with two days in Newfoundland and Labrador, where five of the six sitting Liberal MPs have announced they are not re-offering in this election, and the province’s seven seats are considered pivotal in the Liberal quest to retain government. He then moved on to Nova Scotia for a day, then headed for south-western Ontario to focus on his party’s plans to protect the country from the Trump tariff threats. On Wednesday, he addressed the Liberals’ largest crowd in Kitchener. With Trump’s announcement of the auto tariffs, he cancelled a Thursday trip to Quebec City, to return to Ottawa to meet with the Cabinet Committee on Canada-U.S. Relations.
The Conservative road show opened in the all-important GTA, where the leader campaigned in Brampton and Vaughan before heading to Hamiliton, over the first two days. On Wednesday, Poilievre moved to Quebec for the first time, visiting Montmagny for a press conference and ending the day with a rally in Quebec City. On Thursday, he was off to Vancouver, where he’s the first leader to visit the west coast.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh hit Montreal and Toronto on Monday and then stayed in southern Ontario for the balance of the week, campaigning in Hamilton and London. After the Trump auto tariff announcement, he altered his schedule to move to Windsor for a meeting with auto workers impacted by the U.S. tariffs.
Policy in Week One
This was a policy heavy week, highlighted by competing tax cut plans from all three parties:
- The Liberal plan would save middle-class families up to $825 a year that would directly benefit more than 22 million Canadians.
- The Conservatives countered with a more aggressive approach, designed to save two-income families $1,800 a year and a Canadian earning $57,000 a year would see savings of $900.
- The NDP is taking a different approach. Their “Tax Free Essentials” commitment would reduce the GST on grocery store items, diapers, children’s car seats, clothing for children, all telecom, internet and cell phone charges, as well as on home heating. The NDP would also double the Canada Disability Benefit, helping low-income people with disabilities live with dignity. The NDP promised to pay for these tax cuts through an “excess profit tax on large corporations that gouge Canadians.”
Additional significant policy commitments this week from the parties included:
Liberals
Liberals to protect Canadian auto workers and stand up against tariffs
Liberals release plan to rebuild, reinvest, and rearm the Canadian Armed Forces
Conservatives
Lower taxes, secure retirement for our seniors
Poilievre to axe GST on new homes under $1.3 million
Poilievre suggests he would ‘protect’ dental care, child care programs as PM
NDP
The NDP will unlock public land to build more homes people can afford
Campaign missteps
The three main parties or their supporters, all scored “own goals” this week that threw them off their main messages:
- The Globe and Mail published a story alleging that agents of India and their proxies raised money and organized for Pierre Poilievre during the race that elected him leader. As a result, he was forced to explain yet again why he had earlier refused a security clearance from the government so that he could be briefed on foreign interference.
- Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told the U.S. right-wing news outlet Breitbart News Pierre Poilievre was “in sync” with the direction of Donald Trump. As the CBC’s Jason Markusoff observed in CBC’s story, “Smith was, let’s remember, a media pundit in her past career(s) – known to workshop or test drive different ideas or theories live on air. Rhetorical spaghetti flung on the wall.” Whatever it was, it was not helpful to Poilievre.
- Campaigning in Nova Scotia, Liberal leader Mark Carney referred to Quebec Liberal candidate Natalie Provost, a well-know survivor of the 1989 Ecole Polytechnique massacre, as Natalie Pronovost. He also got the location of the massacre wrong, saying it was at Concordia University. Carney apologized and Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet claimed that Carney’s faux pas proves he just doesn’t understand Quebec.
- Former federal NDP leader Tom Mulcair startled his party this week by writing in a National Post column that the election should be a race “between the Liberals and Conservatives.” “If you can’t seriously say you’re going to form a government that can take on Trump, then get out of the way and let the only real contenders have at it,” he wrote. This has got to be the first time in Canadian political history that a former leader has urged his party’s supporters to “down tools” and vote for the other guys.
- NDP leader Jagmeet Singh readily acknowledged his party faces “massive challenges” given the results of current polls, as voters look elsewhere for a champion to battle Donald Trump, but he remained defiant. “Will I give up on fighting for people that need me to fight for them? No, hell no. I’m never gonna give up. I don’t care what’s going on. I’m always gonna be there to fight for people,” he said. BC NDP MP Nathan Cullen responded to Mulcair for the NDP.
The public opinion polls
Canada338, which aggregates and averages national public opinion polls, today places the Liberals at 41%, ahead of the Conservatives at 37% and the NDP at 9%.
In Quebec, the Liberals are at 40%, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 26% and the Conservatives at 23%. The NDP is trailing at 6%.
Insights in this piece contributed by Geoff Norquay.
Focus on Atlantic Canada
Written by Liam O’Brien / March 27, 2025
Prior to Halifax Liberal MP Andy Fillmore’s 2024 resignation to run for mayor, the Liberals held 24 of Atlantic Canada’s 32 seats. The Conservatives held 8, with no seats in Prince Edward Island. The NDP has not won a seat in the Atlantic region since 2019. While Atlantic Canadians joined the earlier move to supporting the Poilievre Conservatives, the latest regional breakdowns in public polls show the Liberals dominating again in the east with a double-digit lead.
The slates
With Mark Carney leading the party, the Liberals have recruited some high-profile candidates, including former NTV Reporter Don Bradshaw in the Long Range Mountains riding in western Newfoundland and former CBC Radio host Anthony Germain in Terra Nova – The Peninsulas. The Liberals have also reversed what had been a winter-long trend of incumbent Liberals announcing they would not run in 2025. Former federal immigration and housing minister Sean Fraser recently changed his mind and will stand again for the Liberals again in Central Nova, N.S. The Conservative party had already nominated nearly a full slate of generally high-profile candidates in the region, taking advantage of their earlier long-time lead in the polls to recruit and raise funds.
Both the Liberal and Conservative parties have recently faced blowback for appointing candidates. The Liberals appointed Don Bradshaw to run against Conservative Carol Anstey in Long Range Mountains, passing over campaigning contestants. The Conservatives appointed former Skilled Trades Ontario CEO Melissa Young to run against Incumbent Wayne Long in Saint John, NB, as well as Steve Kent to run in Avalon, NL. Both ridings had nomination contestants whose races were cancelled with the appointments.
US tariff threat
As with the rest of Canada, the US tariff threat has upended perspectives in the region. Provincial premiers and their governments have responded, pulling U.S. products off liquor store shelves and reviewing/limiting procurement using U.S. companies. They’re also working on an Atlantic free trade zone, with Nova Scotia’s PC premier Tim Houston pushing the hardest with highway tolls targeting U.S. trucks, tabling legislation on breaking down interprovincial borders as well as an initiative to open and encourage mining and resource development in the province. New Brunswick’s Liberal premier Susan Holt recently met with Massachusetts Governor Maura Healy to discuss ways to address and reduce the tariffs.
Issues and policy
Federal candidates have pressed their parties’ respective national messages on tariff retaliation and economic growth. The Conservatives have pushed hard on the need for the repeal of Trudeau-era C-69 and other regulations they say killed vital pipelines that could have made Canada more resilient in the face of the tariff threats. There is also a local criticism of C-69 as it undermines the joint management system in NL’s and N.S.’s offshore oil and gas accords.
Fisheries is a politicized subject in the region. Local Liberals are saddled with concerns over what fisheries advocates call insufficient Department of Fisheries and Oceans enforcement and management of fisheries such as the lucrative elver/eel fishery. The issue is sensitive and complex and also touches on Indigenous rights. The Conservatives announced that they would re-open the seal and sea lion harvest to address overpopulation of the species and its effect on commercial fish stocks. Mark Carney made Gander NL one of his campaign tour’s first stops, where he promised to bring fisheries decisions “closer to the wharf.”
Conservative and NDP candidates have also criticized Carney for appointing Ontario MP Anita Anand to be Minister in charge of the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency (ACOA), but Atlantic Canada (except PEI) is well represented in the leaner Carney Cabinet. The cabinet includes New Brunswick’s Domenic LeBlanc (International Trade) and Ginette Petitpas Taylor (Treasury Board), Nova Scotia’s Cody Blois (Agriculture), and NL’s Joanne Thompson (Fisheries and Oceans).
Ridings to watch
Halifax (Nova Scotia)
If the NDP have a chance of taking back a seat in Atlantic Canada, it’s probably in metro Halifax. Since Liberal incumbent Andy Fillmore resigned to run for mayor in 2024, former NDP MLA Lisa Roberts has been in place as the federal candidate and running a strong campaign in anticipation of a possible by-election, which was eclipsed by the federal general election call. She faces Liberal candidate Shannon Miedema and Conservative Mark Boudreau. Miedema is the former Director of Environment and Climate change for the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM). As in 2021, this is likely a race between the Liberals and NDP. In the November 2024 provincial election, the NS NDP won most of the provincial districts inside this federal riding.
Malpeque (PEI)
This is a clash of former Ministers/MLAs. After Liberal Wayne Easter retired, former MLA and provincial minister Heath MacDonald won the seat for the Liberals in 2021. In 2025 he’s going up against a former police chief, ex-minister and former leader of the PC Party of PEI Jamie Fox. Fox is one of three ex-PC Ministers running for the Conservatives on the island.
Long Range Mountains (Newfoundland & Labrador)
This riding takes in all of western Newfoundland. Liberal incumbent and former Minister Gudie Hutchings had represented the riding since 2015. In 2021, Hutchings narrowly held on to her seat against Conservative challenger Carol Anstey who is running again in the 2025 election. Anstey has been campaigning pre-writ for more than a year. In 2021 Anstey faced some vote splitting from a PPC candidate, which is not anticipated this time. In a bid to keep the seat, the Liberal party cancelled their nomination process and appointed NTV reporter Don Bradshaw, who is well known throughout the province.
Fredericton (New Brunswick)
Outgoing MP Jenica Atwin first won this seat for the federal Green Party in 2019 before crossing the floor to sit with the Liberals and winning again in 2021, both victories narrow wins over Conservative Andrea Johnson. Atwin announced she would not run again, and the Liberals have yet to nominate a candidate. The Conservatives nominated Ex-MLA, Ex-PC Leadership contestant Brian MacDonald in the spring of 2024 and he has been campaigning ever since. MacDonald served in both the Canadian and British armed forces as well as policy advisor to former federal Minister of Defence Peter MacKay.
