Shortly after 6:30PM, at the Rogers Centre in Ottawa, Mark Carney was announced as the new leader of the Liberal Party of Canada and prime minister delegate, in a landslide victory. He becomes leader at a consequential time for Canadian politics and trade. With no previous political experience, Carney now assumes control of the Liberal Party, and soon the federal government, ahead of an expected early election and existential trade war with the United States.
Carney was the assumed leading candidate throughout the leadership campaign, leading in both fundraising and caucus endorsements over his opponents, Chrystia Freeland, Karina Gould, and Frank Baylis. He was able to translate this support into a substantial victory, receiving nearly 86% of the vote from Liberal Party members, which will aid in the cementing of his position as Party Leader to caucus.
While Mark Carney has won the leadership, he cannot be officially sworn in as Canada’s 24th prime minister until current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigns and the transition can begin. Trudeau has commented just this past week that the transition timeline will be dependant on discussions with the next Liberal leader. Once sworn in, Carney will be the ultimate decider of when an election is called, up until the return of Parliament on March 24th when the next steps may not be entirely up to the new Prime Minister.
Voting and results
The Liberal Party announced prior to the results that 151,899 members cast their ballots in this leadership campaign, out of a possible 396,000 eligible registered voters. This is a new high-water mark in terms of overall voting numbers. During the last leadership contest in 2013 that elected Justin Trudeau as leader, approximately 104,000 members voted.
The Liberal leadership vote functioned on a ranked ballot system, with party members selecting candidates in their own order of preference. The party also used a weighted points system to level the playing field across rural and urban ridings across the country. How many points each of the candidates received is dependent on their share of the vote in that particular riding. Now with 343 ridings, 34,300 points were up for grabs, making 17,151 the key number each candidate was looking for to clinch the needed 50% margin to claim victory.
While some predicted a closer race at the beginning of the contest, the former central banker handily won the contest on the first ballot, with 85.9% of the entire 151,899 votes going his way. A disappointing outing for the other three candidates but will nonetheless provide stability to a party that has been in flux for quite a while.
Full results by candidate
- Mark Carney: 131,674 votes – 29,457 points – 85.9% of the vote.
- Chrystia Freeland: 11,134 votes – 2729 points – 8% of the vote.
- Karina Gould: 4,785 votes – 1,100 points – 3.2% of the vote.
- Frank Baylis: 4,038 votes – 1,014 points – 3% of the vote.
In his acceptance speech, Carney built on the theme of the evening that Canada is united, and the Liberal Party of Canada is united. In the roughly 30-minutes the new Liberal leader spent talking to his Party and to Canadians, he stated his intention as prime minister to build a stronger Canada for all, echoing many of the themes heard throughout his leadership bid. While thanking current Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and noting his many accomplishments while in government, he at the same time called for big changes in Canada that are to be guided by strong Canadian values. The effort these changes will take were emphasized by Carney, cautioning the room of supporters that “We will have to do things that we haven’t imagined before, at speeds we didn’t think were possible”.
Carney outlined previously stated commitments from his campaign platform, notably echoing his intention for his government to immediately eliminate the “divisive consumer carbon tax”. Carney also highlighted that his government will also remove the previously planned increase in the capital gains tax, in a bid to spur more housing starts across the country as he stated investors who are willing to take a chance on housing, should not be punished when it pays off.
Pre-election messaging was clearly evident in the prime minister delegate’s acceptance speech, which offered a clear view into his potential positioning in the upcoming election. He referred directly to Pierre Poilievre on several occasions, pointing out his economic and private sector compared to Poilievre’s, and notably his attempt to link the Conservative leader to President Donald Trump by stating: “A person who worships at the alter of Donald Trump will kneel before him, but will not stand up to him”.
Transition to governing – becoming prime minister
As the new Liberal Party leader, Carney is set to become Canada’s 24th prime minister imminently. To do so, Prime Minister Trudeau is expected to offer his resignation to Governor General Mary Simon, allowing Carney to be sworn-into the role thereafter. This sequencing is expected to happen as early as this week.
After becoming prime minister, Carney will have the option to form a new cabinet or keep the existing ministers already in place under Trudeau. There are considerations for each option.
In keeping Trudeau’s cabinet largely intact, Carney can quickly shift his focus more on the upcoming federal election and addressing trade relations with the U.S. He would be able to do so by having experienced and already briefed ministers remain in their portfolios, limiting the knowledge gap of a transition. However, this option could have the drawback of not allowing Carney to distance himself from the Trudeau government, which could harm his favourability in the next election.
In choosing to revamp cabinet, Carney could do just the opposite and differentiate his leadership from Trudeau’s by shuffling or eliminating positions in cabinet and making his mark on the team surrounding him. However, reshuffling cabinet so close to the outset of an election also presents challenges.
Carney also has the added challenge of deciding whether the very leadership candidates he ran against—namely Chrystia Freeland and Karina Gould—should have a position in his cabinet. Earlier in the week, Freeland said she would appoint Mark Carney as finance minister, if she had won the leadership contest. According to media reports, Carney is set to keep the current roster of key ministers in place, namely those who are working on the Canada-U.S. relationship—which would include Finance, International Trade & Public Safety.
As reported in the Globe and Mail on March 8th, the Carney team is already underway with outlining their transition, including this decision on cabinet and senior staff in the Prime Minister’s Office. Apart from the day-to-day transition, sources have also said the camp is in discussions surrounding recruiting star candidates as well as the basis of a party platform ahead of the upcoming election. It is likely that Carney will call a snap election prior to the March 24th return of Parliament, which would set the election day for approximately April 28th, or May 5th.
Immediate issue – U.S. trade relations
Carney’s victory as Liberal leader comes at a critical point in the ongoing trade war with the United States. With the continuing existential threat of U.S. tariffs hanging over the Canadian population, trade and the economy are set to be among the first issues Carney will tackle as prime minister, and the likely ballot question in an impending election—who is best suited to deal with the U.S. administration.
Addressing Canada-U.S. trade relations took up much of the oxygen throughout the Liberal leadership campaign, with each candidate offering similar yet pointed responses to how they would defend Canada’s economy.
For Carney, strengthening the internal Canadian economy, while diversifying trade abroad, were key to his economic platform. As prime minister, Carney would seek to reduce internal trade barriers and streamline projects of national interest. Reducing red tape and regulations on internal supply chains, implementing interprovincial mobility for healthcare workers, and immediately convening a meeting with premiers are among the actions proposed by Carney. Additionally, Carney has also advocated for increasing trade with like-minded partners across Asia and Europe to reduce reliance on U.S. markets. While some sectors should remain closely aligned with American interests, such as auto manufacturing, energy, and security, Carney has suggested Canada use its expertise in clean energy, critical minerals, and AI to forge new economic linkages abroad.
On immediate steps to respond to U.S. tariffs, Carney has supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs and has been open to the idea of reconvening Parliament in order to pass legislation to support Canadian industries affected by the trade measures, something mentioned by opposition parties like the NDP. Earlier this week, and in preparation for the possibility of his victory, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly briefed Carney on the government’s ongoing tariff response to aid in a speedy transition.
General election – timing and considerations
Regardless of how Carney chooses to manage his first few weeks in office, a federal election is expected in the near future. All political parties have been preparing for an imminent election over the past several months, with confirmed candidates and campaign infrastructure already pre-arranged in many cases.
If Parliament returns on March 24, and election could be called within the first 48 hours of MPs returning to Ottawa. As with any opening of a new parliamentary session, the governing party must table a speech from the throne, read by the Governor General, outlining the government’s priorities for the next legislative session. Traditionally, opposition parties have used the Throne Speech as a non-confidence motion, meaning that if the vote in the House of Commons does not pass, an election is triggered.
If the government survives the throne speech, it will face two other non-confidence motions by March 26 (one on spending estimates and another as part of an opposition day due by that date). If the government falls on a non-confidence motion, an election will likely fall on either May 5 or 12, as federal election periods range from 36 to 50 days and election day must fall on a Monday.
However, it is possible that Mark Carney decides to not convene Parliament at all. To benefit from a recent bump in public opinion for the Liberals and to use campaign spending laws to level the playing field against a better-funded Conservative Party, Mark Carney may seek to call a snap election shortly after being sworn in as prime minister, setting the stage for an election day as early as April 28. Carney has repeatedly mentioned the need for a government to have a “strong mandate” in the face of U.S. tariffs and has questioned the utility of waiting for Parliament to reconvene at the end of the month, unless it is used to pass economic relief for Canadian sectors affected by U.S. tariffs. In a fundraising email sent the morning of the leadership vote, Carney called the upcoming federal campaign “the most consequential election of our lives.”
As he does not currently hold a seat in Parliament, Carney also must choose where he intends to run to become a Member of Parliament, to allow him to sit in the House of Commons, a privilege he does not currently have. So far, Carney has not confirmed his plans but has hinted in the past at running for a seat in Alberta, the province he grew up in. Conversely, Carney could seek a riding with a higher chance of winning, potentially in historically Liberal strongholds further east, potentially in the urban areas of Ontario. While it is not technically required for a prime minister to hold a seat in the House of Commons, doing so would allow Carney to participate in regular House proceedings, including the tabling key legislation and question period.
Insights in this piece contributed by Bailey Stafford and Tom Chan.
