Topline
Justin Trudeau today announced his resignation as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. He will continue to serve as Prime Minister until a new leader is elected by the party “through a rigorous, competitive, national process.”
He also met earlier today with Governor General Mary Simon and asked her to prorogue Parliament until March 24, 2025, a request that she has granted. That date is significant, because the next deadline for the House of Commons to approve interim supply measures is March 26. “Supply” is the process by which the government asks Parliament to appropriate the funds required to meet its financial obligations and to implement programs already approved by Parliament. By definition, supply votes constitute votes of confidence, the loss of which mean the defeat of the government.
In addition, to begin the preparations for a leadership, Liberal MPs have been invited to a special two-hour virtual briefing this afternoon on the party’s constitution and caucus’ role in leadership issues. The Liberal Party of Canada’s National Executive is also scheduled to meet later this week.
The reaction of opposition parties to today’s announcement has been universally negative, including that of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh whose caucus had previously supported the government over the course of multiple confidence votes in the House of Commons last fall. All three leaders stated that regardless of who is the Liberal leader, the House of Commons has no confidence in the government.
Implications of proroguing Parliament
According to House of Commons Procedure and Practice:
“The principal effect of ending a session by prorogation is to terminate business. Members are released from their parliamentary duties until Parliament is next summoned. All unfinished business is dropped from or “dies” on the Order Paper and all committees lose their power to transact business, providing a fresh start for the next session. No committee can sit during a prorogation. Bills which have not received Royal Assent before prorogation are “entirely terminated” and, in order to be proceeded with in the new session, must be reintroduced as if they had never existed.”
When the House returns and a new session begins, it is possible for bills to be reinstated by motion at the same stage they had reached at the end of the previous session; committee work can also be similarly revived.
In the current circumstances, given that the Governor General has granted the PM’s request to prorogue, this will put an end to the Conservative plan to use the Public Accounts Committee to bring to the House a motion of non-confidence in the government.
It is important to note that the impacts of prorogation are limited to the normal functions of Parliament when it is sitting. The government remains in place and is entirely able to continue managing the business of governing. For example, the PM and his ministers will continue to engage with the new U.S. administration and retain the ability to impose tariffs and respond to other potential actions by the incoming Administration in Washington. In addition, decisions with respect to funding either already approved or in departmental pipelines will continue as they normally would.
At the same time, provisions contained in the government’s Fall Economic Statement delivered on December 16 will not take affect during prorogation in the absence of a formal vote. With respect to the changes to the capital gains tax that date back to Budget 2024, Finance Canada maintains that the new provisions live on until they are set aside by the government. The Canadian Revenue Agency has been collecting the tax on the basis of the Ways and Means motion that was passed by the House, as well as the vote in favour of the Budget Implementation Act at second reading.
The Liberal Party Constitution
Section 44 (d) of the Liberal Party Constitution provides that “if the Leader publicly announces an intention to resign or if the Leader delivers to the National President a written resignation or a written request to call a Leadership Vote, the National President must call a meeting of the National Board of Directors to be held within 27 days, and at that meeting the National Board of Directors must:
- Set a date for a Leadership Vote;
- Establish the Leadership Expenses committee….”
Normally, a Liberal leadership contest takes between three and four months. The party leadership will hear from some Liberals who will call for a quicker method of choosing a new leader, that would potentially involve the decision being made by the caucus. Eddie Goldenberg, former Prime Minister Chretien’s Chief of Staff, recently wrote an appeal for a truncated and speedier leadership process in which the Liberal caucus would pick the new leader, although this now seems unlikely in light of the Prime Minister’s comments of earlier today that the leadership will be “through a rigorous, competitive, national process.”
Analysis
Today’s decision by the Prime Minister became inevitable due to the continuing and growing revolt among Liberal caucus members against his continuing as leader. Over the holiday break, the Ontario, Atlantic and Quebec caucuses all called on him to step aside.
The PM’s decision to remain as leader pending the election of his successor denotes some degree of stability in the country’s leadership as President-elect Donald Trump assumes office in the United States. As noted above, the relatively short duration of the prorogation was necessitated by the next deadline for voting supply, but it also sends a clear message on when the fate of the government will be decided. Presumably, the government will fall on the motion to grant supply on March 25 or 26.
The Liberal decision on how they will proceed with the leadership is now critical. The likelihood of the government falling at the end of March argues strongly for a speedier leadership decision than the usual timetable of three to four months. Otherwise, if the government falls at the end of March before a new leader is selected, the Liberals could be led into the election campaign by Justin Trudeau.
Finally, depending on the decisions yet to be made by the Liberal Party on the nature and duration of the leadership process, it may be necessary for the Prime Minister to shuffle the cabinet once again to fill vacancies created by leadership candidates.
