Written by Dale Richardson
With the start of the Saskatchewan election this week, here’s a few quick things I’m thinking about:
- Can Carla Beck and the Saskatchewan NDP effectively prosecute their message of change in this election? They are trying their best, but is it breaking through? They had a big launch of Beck’s “baseball” ad during the Labour Day classic, but they have only just started to widely air that ad digitally on Beck’s social accounts. Are enough people seeing and hearing their message of change and is it persuasive?
- Who will be first to launch a missile into the campaign, either a wedge issue or surprise attack? There’s a couple of clear and obvious ones for the Saskatchewan Party to fire at the NDP, but maybe the NDP have their own plans for a tricky wedge. We will see.
- Additionally, what kind of October Surprise will we see? With so many new candidates putting their names on ballots, there’s sure to be at least a couple. This is setting up to be a pretty nasty campaign.
- With NDP leaders David Eby and Jagmeet Singh backtracking on their support for the federal carbon tax, I’ve been surprised that the Saskatchewan Party team hasn’t been hammering home that Scott Moe has been THE leader in Canada against the carbon tax for years now; in fact, it’s been his signature issue. Seems like an easy win to message that these NDP politicians are just a bunch of Johnny-Come-Lately’s. Opposition to the carbon tax has been Moe’s best issue for a long time and the Sask. Party can’t let voters forget that.
- The NDP is set to pick up new seats in Regina, Saskatoon, and possibly two or three more in Moose Jaw and Prince Albert. But how many seats will the NDP finish in third place? Odds may be set at +/- 7 seats. Look to the north and south where this could be the case.
- What kind of campaign will Scott Moe have, and how will he present himself to Saskatchewan voters? I said in a recent CBC radio appearance that we may see a “lighter” side of Scott Moe, and I hope that’s the case. In the time that I worked for him and since, I have known the Premier to be an affable, good-natured leader that can tell (and take) a joke and make the best of hard situations. But the last number of years through the COVID-19 pandemic and particularly the last year with all the challenges his party has faced have been hard, and we haven’t seen that side of him much. It would be smart to bring “Shellbrook Scott” back into view for voters. Sunday’s Canadian Press story from Jeremy Simes is a good start.
- How will party leaders SURPRISE Saskatchewan voters in a positive way? This is something I discussed with my colleagues Kevin Doherty and Sally Housser when we did The SKoop Podcast. Where can the leaders zag where they’re not expected to? For the Saskatchewan Party, I’ve written in the past that they would surprise voters by promoting women’s issues (which also happen to be family issues) like coverage of birth control and adding more child care spaces. The NDP could surprise by supporting the existing system of privately-delivered medical procedures, like diagnostics and surgeries, and not talking much (or at all) about climate change. The former now seems very unlikely, but the latter seems to be a likelihood (and for the Saskatchewan Party as well, for that matter).
- Finally, and this is a bit geeky: how will the two top leaders physically look during the campaign? Meaning, what will they wear? What will their campaign brand be? During the 2020 campaign, Moe was regularly seen wearing a Saskatchewan Party pullover half-zip or a Carhartt bomber jacket. Look for him to be dressed in something similar this campaign. And Beck? So far as leader she has been presented as what I would call “C-Suite Carla”, often wearing business suits, and she’s got new glasses and a new hairstyle since her leadership campaign. But that look could contrast with her attempts to remind people that she’s “Carla from Lang”, so I suppose I’m maybe more interested in this than I thought! Her team has skilled campaigners and surely they’ve thought of these things.
