On December 13, 2024, Canada’s Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon announced that he is forcing striking Canada Post workers back to work, extending their current collective agreement until May 22, 2025. Along with this measure, he is launching an inquiry into Canada Post’s operations, with results due to him by May 15, 2025.
The government’s assertiveness after nearly a month of strike action comes as no surprise. Years of rising deficits and decreased mail volumes make the current clash between the Crown Corporation and its workers feel both inevitable and irreconcilable: one side desperate to cut its losses, the other side anxious to keep up with the rising cost of living and economic uncertainty.
Over the past two decades, Canada Post has struggled to maintain competitiveness with technological and societal shifts that have steadily reduced Canadians’ reliance on regular mail delivery. According to statistics from Canada Post reports, household letter mail has diminished from an average of seven pieces of mail a week in 2006, to just two in 2023 as Canadians have gradually come to embrace electronic correspondence for everything from bills to holiday greetings. Though parcel delivery volumes have dramatically increased over the same time period as a result of growing interest in e-commerce, this transformation has not yet offset the losses in letter mail over time.
But how much does the strike – or Canada Post for that matter – really matter to Canadians? Our recent polling on the issue shows that while nearly everybody is aware of the strike (95%), only one in four (24%) feel that the strike has had a significant impact on themselves personally.
Personal impact of Canada Post strike
Throughout the dispute, headlines have noted the strike’s potential for a disproportionate impact on certain groups such as those in rural and remote areas, who are often more reliant on Canada Post for daily necessities. Indeed, our polling indicates that rural and remote Canadians are most likely to feel a significant personal impact (29%), with urban Canadians not far behind (25%), while just 20% of suburbanites feel the strike is having a significant personal impact on them. This speaks to obvious differences in lifestyle and access to alternatives depending on where people live, but it also goes to the heart of deeper questions about the future viability and essential functions of Canada Post.
Percent saying the strike has had a significant impact on them personally
Another interesting finding from our polling is that younger Canadian cohorts feel a greater personal impact than older groups. Among Gen Z (18 to 27) and Millennials (28 to 43), 29% say the strike has a significant impact on them personally. This drops quite dramatically for Gen X (44 to 59) at 21%, and even further for those over age 60 (18%). This feels counterintuitive in light of media coverage that has often highlighted difficulties for senior citizens who still rely on mail for bills, cheques, and personal correspondence. However, in the immediate term, it makes sense that younger groups – more inclined to shop online – are feeling the effect on parcel delivery during the busiest shopping time of year.
Percent saying the strike has had a significant impact on them personally
Which brings us to where Canadians do feel the strike is having an impact. While few Canadians note a strong personal impact, the vast majority (75%) say the strike is having a significant impact on Canadian businesses. This registers somewhat higher among certain demographic groups, like Quebecers (79%) and women (82%), but strong majorities across all demographic and political lines say the strike is having a significant impact on businesses.
Impact on businesses of Canada Post strike
Minister MacKinnon’s decision is likely to receive strong popular support. Even though most Canadians do not feel a strong personal impact as a result of the strike, their sense of the impact on business may be driving a widespread sense of need to resolve it: a strong majority (84%) say that it is urgent to settle the labour dispute so mail delivery can resume – a result that also holds across demographics and political affiliations.
Urgency to settle Canada Post labour dispute
So what next? Today’s announcement means that, in the immediate term, Canada Post will be up and running again shortly. In the longer term, the strike is a harsh reminder that there are no simple solutions to the Canada Post quandary. Five months is a short deadline for getting to the root of a national problem decades in the making.
Methodology
Earnscliffe Strategies conducted an online survey of 2,018 Canadians between November 26 and December 1, 2024. The results are weighted by gender, age, and region, based off the most recent Statistics Canada data available. As this study was conducted using an opt-in non-probability panel, no margin of error is possible. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points at a 95% confidence interval.
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